综合考虑检修策略和设备健康指数的配电网可靠性评估  

Reliability evaluation of distribution networks consideringmaintenance strategies and equipment health indexes

作　　者：项波 吴承骏 胡伟楠 任洲洋 文勇 冯艾 罗欢 XIANG Bo;WU Chengjun;HU Weinan;REN Zhouyang;WEN Yong;FENG Ai;LUO Huan(State Grid Chongqing Wangzhou Power Supply Company,Wanzhou,Chongqing 404160,P.R.China;School of Electrical Engineering,Chongqing University,Chongqing 400044,P.R.China)

机构地区：[1]国网重庆市电力公司万州供电分公司,重庆万州404160 [2]重庆大学电气工程学院,重庆400044

出　　处：《重庆大学学报》2021年第8期10-20,共11页Journal of Chongqing University

基　　金：国网重庆市电力公司万州供电公司科学技术项目(5220121900AG)。

摘　　要：针对配电网传统可靠性评估方法未充分考虑设备的差异性、时效性等缺陷,提出了一种综合考虑检修策略和设备健康指数的配电网可靠性评估方法,以合理评估配电网的可靠性,从而为配电网的规划和检修安排提供依据。首先基于logistic回归模型计算设备的健康指数,根据健康指数和故障率的关系曲线计算设备的故障率、可用率和不可用率;然后基于最小路法与故障枚举法,枚举配电网的可行运行方案与故障状态;最后利用设备故障率与负荷点负荷信息,计算系统整体的故障概率和故障后果,从而获得配电网的可靠性指标。对中国南方某地区10 kV实际电网进行仿真分析,验证了所提方法的有效性。To overcome the defects of traditional reliability evaluation methods of distribution networks in which the equipment difference and timeliness are usually not taken into account,a distribution-network reliability-evaluation method which comprehensively considers maintenance strategies and equipment health indexes is proposed,so as to reasonably evaluate the reliability of a distribution network,and provide a reference for the distribution network planning and maintenance arrangement.Firstly,the health indexes of equipment are calculated by the logistic regression model,and the failure rate,reliability and unreliability of equipment are calculated with the health indexes;secondly,the feasible operation schemes and fault states of the distribution network are enumerated based on the minimum path method and the fault enumeration method;finally,the failure rate and the failure consequence of the entire system are calculated with the equipment failure rates and load information.The reliability index of distribution network can be obtained by integrating the overall failure probability and consequence.The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by the simulation analysis of a 10 kV practical power grid in the southern China.

关 键 词：配电网可靠性 健康指数 LOGISTIC回归 最小路法 故障枚举法 

分 类 号：TM732[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]