我国公路网规模及发展水平研究  

Scale and Development Level of Highway Network in China

作　　者：梁科科 常馨玉 任天逸 盛涛 LIANG Ke-ke;CHANG Xin-yu;REN Tian-yi;SHENG Tao(China Academy of Transportation Sciences,Beijing 100029,China)

机构地区：[1]交通运输部科学研究院,北京100029

出　　处：《交通运输研究》2021年第4期51-57,共7页Transport Research

基　　金：中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费项目(20196110)。

摘　　要：为科学研判公路网建设的饱和规模,通过与发达国家的经济发展水平及公路网主要指标进行对比,分析我国公路网发展总体情况;采用相关性分析方法,确定影响公路网规模的主要因素,建立了基于国土面积、人口、GDP的公路网饱和规模无常数项多元回归模型,对我国各省公路网饱和规模进行预测。在此基础上,提出了基于公路网饱和规模及国土面积、人口、GDP的公路网综合评价方法,对各地区公路网发展水平进行评价。结果表明,在公路网主要指标中,国土面积、人口和GDP三个因素与公路网饱和规模显著相关;贵州、湖北、云南、陕西等9个省份现状公路网建设水平对经济社会发展适应性较强,青海、新疆、西藏等地区公路网建设水平较为滞后。In order to scientifically judge the saturation scale of highway network construction,the level of economic development and the main indicators of highway network in developed countries were compared with that of in China,and the overall situation of highway network development in China was analyzed.The correlation analysis method was used to determine the main factors affecting the scale of highway network,and a multivariate regression model without constant term based on land area,population and GDP was established to predict the saturation scale of highway network in various provinces of China.On this basis,a comprehensive evaluation method of highway network based on saturation scale of highway network,land area,population and GDP was proposed,and the development level of highway network in each region was evaluated.The results show that among the main indicators of highway network,land area,population and GDP are significantly related to the saturation scale of highway network.The construction level of highway network in 9 provinces including Guizhou,Hubei,Yunnan and Shaanxi has strong adaptability to economic development,while the highway network construction level in Qinghai,Xinjiang,Tibet is relatively backward.

关 键 词：公路网 饱和规模 相关性分析 无常数项多元回归模型 发展水平 

分 类 号：U491.1[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]