中国国防支出与供需因素影响关系测度分析  

Measurement and analysis of relationship between China′s national defense expenditure and influence of supply and demand factors

作　　者：张侃[1] 刘宝平 梁新[1] 刘思施 ZHANG Kan;LIU Bao-ping;LIANG Xin;LIU Si-shi(Dept. of Management Engineering and Equipment Economics, Naval Univ. of Engineering, Wuhan 430033, China)

机构地区：[1]海军工程大学管理工程与装备经济系,武汉430033

出　　处：《海军工程大学学报》2021年第4期38-43,共6页Journal of Naval University of Engineering

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目(19CGL073);国家社会科学基金一般项目(18BGL285);国家部委基金资助项目(2019-JCJQ-JJ-043)。

摘　　要：针对中国国防支出的计量经济数据特征,采集1996-2016年影响国防支出主要供需因素的观测样本数据,融合动态联系与时空统一的基本假设,结合数据计量特性检验、非结构化建模与分析方法,进行了实证研究。结果表明:供需因素对中国国防支出的影响程度大小排序为自身因素>供给因素>需求因素,需求因素中其他国家对中国的影响大小排序为美国>印度>韩国>日本;长期内,中国国防支出的规模与供需因素之间维持均衡状态,但由于受长期均衡线的拉回影响,近5-7年内仍需持续增加。Based on econometric data of China′s national defense expenditure,its panel data and the main supply&demand factors affecting it from 1996 to 2016 were collected,basic assumptions of dynamic connection and unity of time and space were integrated,and an empirical research was conducted by combining data measurement characteristics test with unstructured modeling and analysis.Empirical evidence shows that the amount of influence of supply&demand factors on China′s defense expenditure in a descending order is:self-factor>supply factor>demand factor;whereas in terms of demand factors the order goes this way:the United States>India>South Korea>Japan.In the long run,China′s defense expenditure scale will stay in balance with supply&demand factors.Due to the pullback of the long-term equilibrium line,it will continue to increase in the next five to seven years.

关 键 词：国防支出 供需因素 计量特性检验 关系测度 非结构化建模 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济]