广义价格维度对利率的影响机制  

Influence Mechanism of Generalized Price on Interest Rate

作　　者：程昊 朱芳草 黄龙涛 Cheng Hao;Zhu Fangcao;Huang Longtao(Department of Fixed Income,Essence Securities,Beijing 100034,China;Department of Asset Management,Bank of Tianjin,Beijing 100000,China;International School,Renmin University of China,Suzhou 215123,China)

机构地区：[1]安信证券固定收益部,北京100034 [2]天津银行资产管理部,北京100000 [3]中国人民大学国际学院,江苏苏州215123

出　　处：《金融理论探索》2021年第4期3-16,共14页Exploration of Financial Theory

摘　　要：从国债收益率纷繁复杂的影响因素中分离出某一维度的影响逻辑有助于规避信息噪音。鉴于央行近期提出需要更广义的通胀概念与度量,从广义价格视角出发,探究价格指标对经济基本面的需求端映射及货币政策的供给端研判逻辑。研究发现在我国经济增长进入新常态的背景下,通过单一价格指标映射基本面的能力有所弱化,且资金需求主导利率的时代已结束,应同时注重资金供给端即货币政策的分析。相比现有研究主要针对狭义价格指标展开分析而言,本文一方面从广义的维度为投资者提供了更清晰的利率分析框架,另一方面建议在制定政策时将资产价格纳入通货膨胀的范畴或在利率规则中加入法定金融稳定目标这两个角度加以修正。Extracting a certain dimension of influence logic from the complex influencing factors of treasury bond yields can help avoid information noise.Considering that the central bank recently proposed the need for a generalized concept and measurement of inflation,this paper starts from the generalized price dimension to explore the demand-side mapping of price indicators to economic fundamentals and the supply-side judgment logic of monetary policy.It shows that under the background of China's economic growth entering the new normal,the ability to map economic fundamentals through a single price index has weakened,and the era of demand side leading interest rates has ended.So paying attention to the analysis of capital supply side is necessary.Compared with the existing research mainly focusing on the analysis of narrow price indicators,this paper provides investors with a clearer interest rate analysis framework from the generalized price dimension.In addition,it suggested that asset prices should be included in the scope of inflation policy and legal financial stability goal should be added to the interest rate rules.

关 键 词：广义价格指标 利率水平 资金供需分析 

分 类 号：F837.12[经济管理—金融学]