人口流动、工资变化与经济增长——基于省际面板数据的空间计量分析  

Population Mobility,Wage Change and Economic Growth--Spatial Econometric Analysis Based on Inter-provincial Panel Data

作　　者：孙继国[1] 石铁华 许清清[1] SUN Ji-guo;SHI Tie-hua;XU Qing-qing(School of Economics,Qingdao University,Qingdao 266061,China;The Center for Economic Research,Shandong University,Jinan 250100,China)

机构地区：[1]青岛大学经济学院,山东青岛266061 [2]山东大学经济研究院,山东济南250100

出　　处：《人口与发展》2021年第4期14-23,36,共11页Population and Development

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目《智能制造驱动劳动关系转型的社会嵌入路径研究》(19BSH085);山东省社科规划研究项目《促进山东省实体经济和现代金融良性循环研究》(19BJCJ60)。

摘　　要：基于2006-2017年我国省际面板数据,在理论分析的基础上利用空间计量模型实证分析人口流动、工资变化与经济增长的关系,研究发现:目前流动人口的空间集聚并未明显地促进本地区和其邻近地区的经济增长;中东部地区的空间溢出效应为负,而西部地区则显著为正。相对于中东部发达地区,西部地区人口流入更能够促进本地经济增长;人口流动的经济效应存在工资传导机制,即人口流动会通过调节居民工资水平进而对地区经济增长产生影响。概括说来,保证人口总量与区域经济发展相适应相协调、注重人力资本的积累与创新、完善工资薪酬体系、制定合理的流动人口机制均有利于本地区经济增长,进而缩小区域经济发展差距。Based on the provincial panel data from 2006 to 2017,the spatial econometric model was used to empirically analyze the relationship between population mobility,wage change and economic growth on the basis of theoretical analysis.The results show that the spatial agglomeration of floating population does not obviously promote the economic growth of this region and its adjacent areas.The spatial spillover effect is negative in the central and eastern regions and positive in the western regions.Compared with the developed areas in central and eastern China,the population inflow in western China is more conducive to local economic growth.The economic effect of population mobility has wage transmission mechanism,that is,population mobility will influence regional economic growth by adjusting the wage level of residents.To sum up,ensuring the coordination between the total population and the regional economic development,paying attention to the accumulation and innovation of human capital,improving the wage and salary system,and formulating a reasonable floating population mechanism are all conducive to the economic growth of this region and thus narrowing the gap of regional economic development.

关 键 词：人口流动 工资变化 经济增长 空间计量模型 

分 类 号：F061.5[经济管理—政治经济学]