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作 者:张芯瑜 黄忠 Zhang Xinyu;Huang Zhong(Sun Yat-Sen University,Zhuhai;Guangdong Dniversity of Foreign Studies,Guangzhou)
机构地区:[1]中山大学拉丁美洲研究中心 [2]广东外语外贸大学加拿大研究中心、拉美研究中心
出 处:《经济社会体制比较》2021年第4期161-170,共10页Comparative Economic & Social Systems
基 金:中国博士后科学基金项目“拉美民粹主义政党的发展及其对国家治理的影响”(项目编号:2020M672915)。
摘 要:21世纪初,拉美地区掀起了左翼民粹主义政党执政的浪潮,但2015年以来,这些左翼政权相继下台。由委内瑞拉前总统查韦斯领导的民粹主义运动影响范围大,持续时间长,是拉美左翼民粹主义的典型。文章基于拉美晴雨表发布的委内瑞拉四个选举年的民意调查数据,运用逻辑斯蒂回归模型,对该国左翼民粹主义的兴衰与民众投票行为的关系进行实证分析。研究发现:拉美民众的投票行为具有经济结果导向性和政策导向性,对国家宏观经济评价越好,意识形态左倾的民众越愿意支持左翼民粹主义政权;政治信任对民众投票偏好的影响具有异质性,低水平的政党信任度导致了左翼民粹主义的崛起,但随着政治信任的积累,即使处于衰落期的左翼民粹主义也会得到支持;从阶级分布看,较低阶层的民众倾向于支持崛起中的左翼民粹主义政党,但在其政权衰退期,"阶级分野"不再是影响选民投票行为的重要因素。At the beginning of the 21st century, there was a wave of left-wing populism in Latin America. However, the left-wing regimes have fallen one after another since 2015, whereas right-wing parties are tending to be strong. The populist movement led by the former Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has exerted a wide range of influence and a long duration, which is a typical example of left-wing populism in Latin America. Based on the public opinion survey data of Venezuela in four election years(1998, 2006, 2011 and 2018) released by "Latin America barometer", this paper uses logistic regression models to investigate the relationship between left-wing populism and voters’ behavior in Venezuela. It is found that, the voters’ behavior was "economic result oriented", and the better the evaluation of the national macro-economy, the more people would support the left-wing populism. Meanwhile, their behavior was "policy oriented", and the left-wing ideological voters would support the left-wing populist political parties. In addition, the influence of political trust on people’s voting preference is heterogeneous. The poor party-trust has led to the rise of left-wing populism. However, with the accumulation of political trust, people with high-level political trust are more inclined to support left-wing populism in the declining period. The lower class tends to support the left-wing populism when it’s rising, but the "class cleavage" theory doesn’t work when it’s fading. Therefore, the key to understand the cycle of populism in Latin American is to comprehend the voters’ behavior.
分 类 号:D73[政治法律—政治学] D77[政治法律—中外政治制度]
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