2035年中国建筑业劳动力需求情景预测及应对措施  

Scenario Prediction and Corresponding Measures of Labor Demand in China s Construction Industry for 2035

作　　者：王广斌[1] 徐可 曹冬平[1] WANG Guangbin;XU Ke;CAO Dongping(School of Economics and Management,Tongji University,Shanghai 200092,China)

机构地区：[1]同济大学经济与管理学院,上海200092

出　　处：《土木工程与管理学报》2021年第4期15-22,共8页Journal of Civil Engineering and Management

基　　金：中国工程院重大咨询研究项目(2020-ZD-9);中国工程院咨询项目(2019-XZ-34-05);中国建筑出版传媒有限公司创新发展基金(CX001)。

摘　　要：近年来,建筑业农民工数量大幅度减少,2014—2020年减少了14.45%,预计自然情景下2035年以农民工为主体的中国建筑业劳动力供求缺口将达到1097万人。本文结合建筑业劳动力供求现状,利用建筑业劳动力历史数据对2021—2035年建筑业劳动力供求进行工业化渗透率、数字化渗透率、产业培训率及劳动力参与率的多情景预测,研究发现通过提升工业化渗透率、数字化渗透率、产业培训率实现劳动生产率提升45.5%时才能填补自然情景下的劳动力缺口。最后,从完善工业化与智能化建造技术创新体系及协同发展路径、建立建筑产业工人培训经费管理标准体系并完善动态培训体系、增强行业吸引力并拓展劳动力引进途径等方面提出应对措施,为适应新时代建筑业升级转型提供劳动力保障。Migrant workers in the construction industry have decreased drastically,with a decrease of 14.45%from 2014 to 2020.It is estimated that the labor supply and demand gap in China s construction industry,which is dominated by migrant workers,will reach 10.97 million in 2035.Based on the current situation of labor supply and demand,this paper used historical data to make a multi-scenario prediction of the industrialization penetration rate,digital penetration rate,industrial training rate,and labor participation rate in the construction industry from 2021 to 2035.Only when labor productivity increases by 45.5%can they fill the labor gap in the natural scenario.Finally,the paper puts forward some corresponding measures,including improving the innovation system of industrialization and digitalization and the dynamic collaborative development path,establishing the management standard system of construction industry workers training funds,improving the dynamic training system with multiple participation,enhancing the attraction of construction industry posts,and expanding the ways of labor introduction,so as to make up for the labor gap of construction industry in the future and lay a labor foundation for the transformation and upgrading of the Chinese construction industry.

关 键 词：建筑业 劳动力需求 劳动力供给 情景分析 应对措施 

分 类 号：F203[经济管理—国民经济] F407.9