中国玉米进出口W型波动及贸易效应研究  

A Study on China’s Corn Trade W-shaped Fluctuation and Trade Effect

作　　者：郭修平[1] 刘帅[1] Guo Xiu-ping;Liu Shuai(School of Economics and Management,Jilin Agricultural University,Changchun Jilin 130118)

机构地区：[1]吉林农业大学经济管理学院,吉林长春130118

出　　处：《经济纵横》2021年第7期102-109,共8页Economic Review Journal

基　　金：吉林省教育厅“十三五”社会科学研究项目“供给侧改革背景下中国玉米贸易竞争力增长机制研究”(编号:JJKH20180714SK);国家社会科学基金项目“玉米收储政策改革的效率检视、目标评估与政策优化研究”(编号:20BJY147)的成果。

摘　　要：2010年以来,中国玉米进出口波动曲线呈W型变化,波动振幅近300万吨。玉米贸易逆差与国产玉米供大于求及产业结构优势相矛盾。本文基于恒定市场份额模型,分析了近十年中国玉米进出口的贸易规模效应、贸易结构效应和贸易引力效应。研究表明:世界玉米贸易规模增长促进了中国玉米贸易量增加,贸易结构效应对中国玉米进口波动的影响力越来越大,贸易引力效应是现阶段影响中国玉米贸易最大的因素。其中,在贸易结构方面存在玉米进口来源国(地区)过于集中的问题,而贸易引力方面也存在中国玉米贸易竞争力不足和受贸易摩擦影响的问题。中国应在共建"一带一路"背景下,进一步充分利用国内外"两个市场",打造"适度"玉米进口、保障粮食安全的良好贸易格局。Since 2010,the fluctuation curve of China’s corn imports and exports has shown a"W"shape with a fluctuation amplitude of 3 million tons.The corn trade deficit contradicts the domestic supply situation and the industrial structure advantage.Based on the constant market share model,this paper analyzes the trade scale effect,trade structure effect and trade gravity effect of China’s corn import and export in the past decade.The research shows that the growth of world corn trade has promoted the increase of China’s corn trade;the effect of trade structure on the fluctuation of China’s corn imports is increasing;the gravity effect of trade is the biggest factor affecting China’s corn trade at this stage.Among them,in terms of trade structure,there is the problem of the concentration of corn import source countries,and in terms of trade gravity,there is also the influence of China’s corn trade competitiveness and trade frictions.China should further make full use of the"two markets"at home and abroad under the background of the joint construction of the"Belt and Road"to create a"moderate"corn import and a good trade pattern that guarantees food security.

关 键 词：玉米进出口 规模效应 结构效应 引力效应 贸易竞争力 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]