土地财政依赖、城市公共服务供给与人口城镇化——基于35个大中城市的面板数据分析  

Land Financial Dependence,Urban Public Service Supply and Population Urbanization——A Panel Data Analysis Based on 35 Large and Medium-sized Cities

作　　者：魏义方[1] 卢倩倩 Wei Yi-fang;Lu Qian-qian(Institute of Social Development,China Academy of Macroeconomics,Beijing 100038;School of Public Administration,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872)

机构地区：[1]中国宏观经济研究院社会发展研究所,北京100038 [2]中国人民大学公共管理学院,北京100872

出　　处：《经济纵横》2021年第7期118-128,共11页Economic Review Journal

摘　　要：城镇化进程中,土地出让相关财政收支为城市基础设施、民生事业发展等方面提供了大规模资金支持。本文基于35个大中城市的面板数据,使用固定效应面板回归模型和面板门限模型估计了土地财政依赖对城市公共服务供给的影响。结果显示:土地财政依赖对经济性公共服务供给有显著正向影响;对民生性公共服务的影响存在城镇化阶段性差异,在城镇化加速阶段和后期阶段,土地财政依赖的负效应明显减弱并转变为正向影响。进一步分析表明,随着城镇化进程的推进,地方政府由城镇化初期注重城市基础设施建设、为经济增长而竞争,逐渐向城镇化成熟阶段的偏好民生性公共服务供给、通过福利提升而开展人口竞争模式发展。建议加强保有环节税收、推进以人为核心的城镇化、促进土地财政转型,不断改善城市公共服务供给。The revenue and expenditure related to land transfer have been providing large-scale financial support for the development of urban infrastructure and people’s livelihood in the process of urbanization.Based on the panel data of 35 large and medium-sized cities,this paper uses the fixed-effect panel regression model and the panel threshold model to analyze the marginal effect of land financial dependence on urban public service supply. The results show that the land financial dependence has a significant positive impact on the supply of economic public services. The impact of land financial dependence on the supply of social public services is different in stages of urbanization,which is,the negative effect is significantly reduced and transformed into a positive effect in the accelerated and later stages of urbanization. Further analysis shows that with the advancement of urbanization,local governments focused on urban infrastructure construction to compete for economic growth in the initial stage of urbanization,and gradually moved to population competition through the supply of social public services in the mature stage of urbanization. It is recommended to strengthen land holding tax,further enhance people-centered urbanization,and promote land finance transformation to continuously improve the supply of urban public services.

关 键 词：土地财政 城市公共服务 人口城镇化 面板门限模型 

分 类 号：F812[经济管理—财政学]