2014—2018年中国大陆地区淋病流行趋势及空间分布特征  

Epidemic trend and spatial distribution characteristics of gonorrhea in China's Mainland from 2014 to 2018

作　　者：余莉 王一卉 王鹏举 袁艳 曹雁文 李绍玄 高银燕[1] 丁国武[1] YU Li;WANG Yi-hui;WANG Peng-ju;YUAN Yan;CAO Yan-wen;LI Shao-xuan;GAO Yin-yan;DING Guo-wu(School of Public Health,Lanzhou University,LanZhou 730000,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州大学公共卫生学院,兰州730000

出　　处：《中华疾病控制杂志》2021年第8期885-890,954,共7页Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention

摘　　要：目的探讨2014—2018年中国大陆地区淋病流行趋势及空间分布特征,为确定重点防控区域和制定有针对性的防控策略提供参考依据。方法基于2014—2018年中国大陆地区31个省、自治区和直辖市(港澳台地区除外)淋病报告发病数据,应用地理信息系统(geographic information system,GIS)进行空间自相关分析、冷热点分析、克里金(Kirging)插值预测,采用ArcGIS 10.6软件实现可视化地图绘制。结果2014—2018年中国大陆地区淋病发病率总体呈上升趋势,2014—2018年淋病发病率的空间分布呈空间正相关特征(Moran’I=0.335,Z=3.581,P<0.001),且发病热点区域主要集中在江苏省、上海市、浙江省和福建省等东南沿海地区。Kirging插值预测结果显示:2014—2018年淋病发病率总体呈"东南高中西低"的空间分布格局,发病率高值区与热点分析结果一致。结论2014—2018年中国大陆地区淋病发病呈现空间聚集性分布,需加强热点区域淋病防控工作。Objective To explore the epidemic trend and spatial distribution characteristics of gonorrhea in China's Mainland from 2014 to 2018,and provide reference for identifying key prevention areas and formulating targeted prevention and control strategies.Methods Based on the data of gonorrhea from online reporting system in 31 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions in China's Mainland from 2014 to 2018,the spatial autocorrelation analysis,cold hot spot analysis and Kirging interpolation prediction were conducted by using geographic information system(GIS).The visualization map was drawn by ArcGIS 10.6 software.Results The incidence rate of gonorrhea in China's Mainland showed an overall upward trend from 2014 to 2018.The spatial distribution of gonorrhea incidence from 2014 to 2018 showed spatial positive correlation(Moran’I=0.335,Z=3.581,P<0.001),and the hot spots mainly concentrated in the southeast coastal areas including Jiangsu,Shanghai,Zhejiang and Fujian.The Kirging interpolation prediction showed that the incidence rate of gonorrhea from 2014 to 2018 was generally high in the southeast and low in the central and western regions.The regions of high incidence rate were consistent with the hot spot analysis.Conclusion From 2014 to 2018,the incidence of gonorrhea in China's Mainland showed spatial clustering distribution.And it is necessary to strengthen the prevention and control of gonorrhea in hot spots.

关 键 词：淋病 流行趋势 空间分布 克里金插值预测 

分 类 号：R181[医药卫生—流行病学]