基于系统动力学的人口迁移重力模型改进及实证检验  

Improvement and empirical test of population migration gravity model based on system dynamics

作　　者：李鹏博 田丽君 黄文彬 LI Pengbo;TIAN Lijun;HUANG Wenbin(School of Economics and Management,Fuzhou University,Fuzhou 350116,China)

机构地区：[1]福州大学经济与管理学院,福州350116

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2021年第7期1722-1731,共10页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71671044)。

摘　　要：探讨人口迁移的动因和规律能够帮助政府管理部门进行资源有效配置和政策制定,引导人口合理分布,促进区域之间协调发展.针对传统重力模型人口总量约束条件不足的问题,基于人口迁移推拉理论和系统动力学提出了改进的人口迁移重力模型.模型假设城市居民会综合考虑期望收入、就业机会、交通阻力和住宅价格等因素进行迁移地址决策,并以苏州工业园区和深圳市的案例验证了模型的有效性.最后,对政策因素进行了敏感性分析,研究发现,交通阻力越小,期望收入比越高,住宅价格增长越小,人口迁入的数量越高.交通规划管理部门应结合人口迁移影响因素的特点,合理进行地区之间的轨道交通建设和资源优化配置.Exploring the motivation and rules of population migration can help the government management departments allocate resources efficiently and make policies effectively,so as to guide the residents to distribute rationally,thus promoting the coordinated development among different regions.Aiming at the problem that the traditional gravity model lacks a constraint on the upper limit of population migration,an improved population migration gravity model is proposed based on population migration push-pull theory and system dynamics.The model assumes that urban residents will make comprehensive decisions regarding expected income,employment opportunities,transportation resistance,and housing prices to make relocation decisions.The cases of Suzhou Industrial Park and Shenzhen are introduced to prove the validity of the model.Finally,the sensitivity analysis relating to several policy factors shows that the number of population migration will be higher for a lower traffic resistance,higher expected income ratio,and smaller housing price growth.Therefore,the transportation planning department should carry out the rail transit construction and resource allocation plan by considering the characteristics of proposed factors influencing the population migration,to optimize the development among different regions.

关 键 词：人口迁移 系统动力学 重力模型 实证检验 

分 类 号：F287[经济管理—国民经济]