能源革命与大国机遇——中国参与能源定价的机制与路径研究  

Energy Revolution and Great Power Opportunities:Study on the Mechanism and Path of China’s Participation in Energy pricing

作　　者：田洪志 李慧[2] 魏潇洁 姚峰 TIAN Hong-zhi;LI Hui;WEI Xiao-jie;YAO Feng(Institute of Western China Economic Development,Northwestern University,Xi'an 710127,China;School of Economics and Management,Northwestern University,Xi'an 710127,China;Faculty of Economics,Kagawa University,Takamatsu 7608523,Japan)

机构地区：[1]西北大学中国西部经济发展研究院,陕西西安710127 [2]西北大学经济管理学院,陕西西安710127 [3]香川大学经济学部,香川高松7608523

出　　处：《经济问题》2021年第8期1-8,共8页On Economic Problems

基　　金：日本文部科学省科研基金基盤研究(C)“ビッグデータを利用した景気変動メカニズムの実証分析法の研究(利用大数据的景气变动机制的实证分析法的研究)(19K01583);陕西省社会科学基金项目“大力发展枢纽经济、门户经济、流动经济研究”(2019D054);陕西省教育厅2021年度科研计划重点项目“中国争取原油国际定价权的进程研判与后续战略研究”(21JT042)。

摘　　要：历史经验表明能源革命会给大国发展带来战略机遇。中国在能源定价权缺失的背景下,应抓住第三次能源革命的历史机遇。本次能源革命表现出能源供给多元化、能源消费低碳化、能源贸易东移化、地缘格局复杂化以及能源定价期货化等特征。中国应该从价格的影响时效、影响强度以及影响范围等三个层面创建能源基准价格的形成机制。基于多变量时间序列单方向因果测度模型考察中国争取石油定价权的真实进程,给出先东亚、再亚洲、然后是世界的定价权争取路径,建议中国油价应该在东亚地区形成优势性机制、在亚洲形成长期性机制、在世界范围内形成优势性和公认性机制。Historical experience shows that the energy revolution can bring strategic opportunities to the development of large countries.China should seize the historical opportunity of the third energy revolution in the context of lack of energy pricing power.This energy revolution is characterized by diversified energy supply,low-carbon energy consumption,eastward shift of energy trade,complicated geographical patterns and future-oriented energy pricing.China should establish the formation mechanism of energy benchmark prices in three dimensions:the time limit of price impact,the intensity of price impact,and the scope of price impact.Based on the multivariable time series unidirectional causality measurement model,this paper investigates the real process of China’s striving for oil pricing power,and give the path of striving for oil pricing power first in East Asia,then in Asia and then in the world and suggests that Chinese oil prices should form a dominant mechanism in East Asia,a long-term mechanism in Asia,and a dominant and recognized mechanism in the world.

关 键 词：第三次能源革命 能源定价权 国际基准价格 单方向因果 

分 类 号：F114.3[经济管理—国际贸易]