商誉存在顺周期效应吗  

Is There Pro-Cyclical Effect among Goodwill?

作　　者：周泽将[1] 王浩然[1] 雷玲 Zhou Zejiang

机构地区：[1]安徽大学商学院/经济学院,230601

出　　处：《会计研究》2021年第4期49-59,共11页Accounting Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(71772001);国家自然科学基金重大项目(71790602);安徽省学术与技术带头人及后备人选科研活动经费资助项目(2019H218);安徽省高校学科(专业)拔尖人才资助项目(gxbjZD02)的资助。

摘　　要：本文采用2007-2017年间中国资本市场A股上市公司作为分析样本,实证检验经济周期对商誉的影响以及相应的影响路径和情境特征。研究发现:(1)在经济上行期,商誉变动额显著增加,表现为商誉顺周期效应;(2)商誉减值在商誉顺周期效应中发挥了中介作用,即经济上行期可以通过降低商誉减值准备计提比例以促使商誉变动额增加,而并购频次和并购溢价在经济周期影响商誉变动的路径检验中不显著;(3)当企业所处地区制度环境完善、处于轻资产行业或成长期时,商誉顺周期效应显著减弱;(4)拓展性检验表明,商誉变动额促进了个股收益率的提升,但经济周期会抑制这一促进作用。本文明晰了商誉顺周期效应的影响路径和情境特征,丰富了经济周期和微观企业行为之间关系的文献。This article takes listed companies in Chinese capital market from 2007 to 2017 as samples,tests the influence of business cycle on goodwill and its influence path and corresponding context characteristics.The research results show that:(1)When the economy is in the upward cycle,the amount of goodwill changes increases significantly,indicating that there is pro-cyclical effect among goodwill;(2)Proportion of goodwill impairment play intermediary roles in the pro-cyclical effect of goodwill,in other words,upward trend of business cycle can increase the amount of goodwill changes by reducing proportion of goodwill impairment,and number and premium of M&A are not significant in path test of business cycle affecting goodwill change;(3)The pro-cyclical effect of goodwill weakens when the institutional environment of area where list companies located is better,the companies belong to asset-light industry,or in the growth stage;(4)Further tests show that changes of goodwill promotes the individual stock yield,but business cycle inhibit this promotion.This article helps us to clarify influence path and contextual characteristics of the pro-cyclical effect of goodwill,and it also enriches literatures on the relationship between business cycles and micro-enterprise behaviors.

关 键 词：商誉 经济周期 顺周期效应 情境因素 影响路径 

分 类 号：F832.51[经济管理—金融学] F275