不同生产评价周期对页岩气项目投资收益的影响  

Impact of Different Production Evaluation Cycle on Investment Income of Shale Gas Project

作　　者：史建勋[1,2] 王红岩 赵群[1,2] 刘德勋 吝文[1,2] 于荣泽 武瑾[1,2] 蔚远江 李小龙[1,2] Shi Jianxun;Wang Hongyan;Zhao Qun;Liu Dexun;Lin Wen;Yu Rongze;Wu Jin;Yu Yuanjiang;Li Xiaolong(Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration and Development,CNPC,Beijing 100083;National Energy Shale Gas R&D(Experimental)Center,Beijing 100083)

机构地区：[1]中国石油勘探开发研究院,北京100083 [2]国家能源页岩气研发(实验)中心,北京100083

出　　处：《中外能源》2021年第8期36-42,共7页Sino-Global Energy

摘　　要：产量是决定页岩气开发项目投资收益的主要因素,页岩气开发井有其特有的产量递减规律,如何确定合理的生产周期也就成为决定页岩气项目投资成败的关键,也是页岩气投资项目最大的风险点。目前业内普遍采用20年的生产运营期来规划设计方案,如此长的生产评价期是否具有现实可行性、能否实现投资收益最大化需要进一步研究。过长的生产周期会带来远期不确定性风险,不利于页岩气开发项目的降本增效。不论是页岩气井的实际产量递减规律还是不同情景下的经济评价对比分析,都不支持页岩气井20年的生产运营期。通过对比分析不同情境下不同生产周期方案的收益率变化规律,结合已开发井的生产数据,建议页岩气井在规划设计阶段采用10年的生产运营期来设计,投产后根据边际利润理论来核定生产运营期,实现页岩气投资项目的收益最大化。Production is the main factor that determines the investment income of shale gas development projects.Shale gas wells have their own production decline law.How to determine a reasonable production cy-cle has become the key to determine the success or failure of the investment on shale gas projects,and it is also the biggest risk point of the shale gas investment projects.At present,the scheme is planned and designed for 20-year production and operation generally.Whether such a long production evaluation cycle is re-alistic and feasible and whether the investment income can be maximized needs further study.Long production cycle will bring long-term uncertainty risk,which is not conducive to the cost reduction and efficiency improvement of the shale gas development projects.Neither the actual production decline law of the shale gas wells nor the economic evaluation analysis of different situations support the 20-year production and operation period of the shale gas wells.Through comparison analysis on the rate of return in different schemes with various production cycles under different situation and the production data of the developed wells,the shale gas wells may be planned and designed for 10-year production and operation,and the production and operation period may be determined according to the theory of marginal profit after putting into production so as to realize the maximization of the return of the shale gas projects.

关 键 词：页岩气 生产周期 收益 

分 类 号：F426.2[经济管理—产业经济]