祁连山内陆河流域水资源安全评价及障碍因子诊断  

Evaluation and obstacle factor diagnosis of water resources security in the inland river basin of Qilian mountains

作　　者：任潇潇 牛成英 REN Xiao-xiao;NIU Cheng-ying(Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics,Lanzhou 730020,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州财经大学统计学院,甘肃兰州730020

出　　处：《湖北师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2021年第3期42-49,共8页Journal of Hubei Normal University：Natural Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金西部项目(19XTJ002);2019年度省社科联和甘肃省社会科学学术活动基金会项目(19ZZ17);兰州财经大学科研项目(Lzufe2019B-012)阶段性成果。

摘　　要：结合熵权法与功效系数法对1999~2019年祁连山内陆河流域水资源安全进行测度评价,并进一步利用障碍度模型计算不同年份水资源安全指标的障碍度,分析影响水资源安全的主要障碍因子。研究结果表明:1)1999~2000年间,处于较危险状态,且较为稳定;2)2001~2015年间,呈“波浪式”变化,较不稳定,且有恶化的趋势;3)2016~2019年间,处于较危险状态,较不稳定,2018年稍有改善。整体来看,截止2019年,祁连山内陆河流域水资源目前仍处于较危险状态。障碍因子诊断显示,水生态安全是影响祁连山内陆河流域水资源安全的最主要因子。其次,废污水排放量、林牧渔用水率、GDP、生活用水率和总用水量等人为因素对该地区水资源安全也有重要影响。Entropy weight method and efficiency coefficient method were combined to measure and evaluate water resources security in the inland river basin of Qilian mountains from 1999 to 2019.The obstacle degree model was further used to calculate the obstacle degree of water resources security indicators in different years,and the main obstacle factors affecting water resources security were analyzed.The results show that:1)During 1999~2000,it was in a more dangerous and stable state;2)From 2001 to 2015,there was a“wavy”change,which was relatively unstable and showed a worsening trend;3)From 2016 to 2019,it was in a relatively dangerous and unstable state,and it improved slightly in 2018.On the whole,as of 2019,the water resources in the inland river basin of Qilian mountains are still in a dangerous state.The diagnosis of obstacle factors showed that the water ecological security is the most important obstacle factors affecting the water resources security in the inland river basin of Qilian mountains.Secondly,human factors,including waste water discharge,water consumption rate for forestry,animal husbandry and fishery,GDP,domestic water consumption rate and total water consumption,which also have an important impact on water resources security in this region.

关 键 词：祁连山内陆河流域 水资源安全 综合评价 障碍因子诊断 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源]