青藏高原气候变化若干前沿科学问题  

Several research frontiers of climate change over the Tibetan Plateau

作　　者：游庆龙 康世昌 李剑东[5] 陈德亮[6] 翟盘茂[7] 吉振明 YOU Qinglong;KANG Shichang;LI Jiandong;CHEN Deliang;ZHAI Panmao;JI Zhenming(Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences&Institute of Atmospheric Sciences,Fudan University,Shanghai 200438,China;CMA-FDU Joint Laboratory of Marine Meteorology,Shanghai 200438,China;State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China;Department of Earth Sciences,University of Gothenburg,Gothenburg 40530,Sweden;Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China;School of Atmospheric Sciences,Sun Yat-sen University,Zhuhai 519082,Guangdong,China;Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai),Zhuhai 519082,Guangdong,China)

机构地区：[1]复旦大学大气科学研究院大气与海洋科学系,上海200438 [2]中国气象局复旦大学海洋气象灾害联合实验室,上海200438 [3]中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室,甘肃兰州730000 [4]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [5]中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室,北京100029 [6]瑞典哥德堡大学地球科学系,瑞典哥德堡40530 [7]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081 [8]中山大学大气科学学院,广东珠海519082 [9]南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室(珠海),广东珠海519082

出　　处：《冰川冻土》2021年第3期885-901,共17页Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology

基　　金：第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究项目(2019QZKK0105);国家自然科学基金项目(41971072)资助。

摘　　要：在全球变化的背景下,青藏高原冰冻圈和大气圈正在发生快速变化,对“亚洲水塔”和“第三极”的生态环境带来深刻影响。研究并梳理了近年来青藏高原气候变化的若干前沿科学问题的研究进展,如高原极端气候事件变化及其与大气环流的关系;高原变暖放大效应及海拔依赖型变暖的物理机制;再分析资料在高原气候变化应用的适用性;气候模式在高原资料稀缺地区的模拟偏差特征及不确定性;以及不同升温阈值下高原气候变化的预估及其风险等。同时展望了高原气候变化研究的前沿问题和科学难点。认清高原气候变化研究的前沿科学问题,可为“一带一路”倡议顺利实施提供科学依据。Under the background of global change,the cryosphere and atmosphere over the Tibetan Plateau(TP)are changing rapidly,which seriously affects the ecological environment of“Asian Water Tower”and“the Third Pole”.This paper reviews some issues in the research on climate change over the TP in recent years,in⁃cluding the change of extreme climate events over the TP and its relationship with the atmospheric circulation,the amplified warming and the physical mechanism of elevation dependent warming,applicability of modern re⁃analysis data,the bias and inaccuracy of climate models in the areas with scarce data over the TP,and the projec⁃tion and risk study of climate change over the TP under the different warming threshold.Finally,some impor⁃tant issues and associated scientific challenges in the study of climate change over the TP are identified and their prospects are discussed.Addressing these will support the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative.

关 键 词：青藏高原 气候变化 前沿问题 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]