河西走廊石羊河流域近10年人工增雨效果检验评估  

Effect Evaluation of Artificial Rainfall Enhancement in the Shiyang River Basin of Hexi Corridor in the Latest 10 Years

作　　者：程鹏 陈祺[1] 蒋友严 李宝梓[1] 罗汉 CHENG Peng;CHEN Qi;JIANG Youyan;LI Baozi;LUO Han(Gansu Weather Modification Office,Lanzhou 730020,Gansu,China;Lanzhou Regional Climate Center,Lanzhou 730020,Gansu,China)

机构地区：[1]甘肃省人工影响天气办公室,甘肃兰州730020 [2]兰州区域气候中心,甘肃兰州730020

出　　处：《高原气象》2021年第4期866-874,共9页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFC1510302);西北区域人工影响天气能力建设项目研究试验项目(ZQC-R18208);甘肃省气象局气象科研项目(Ms2019-19)。

摘　　要：为改善河西走廊石羊河流域生态水文环境,2010年开始气象部门在该流域的人工增雨作业点从22个增加到71个,并大幅度增加了作业量。为评估作业点和作业量增加后的人工增雨效果,本文采用中国气象局人工影响天气中心推荐的统计检验方法,对2010-2019年期间的降雨量进行了统计检验分析研究。结果表明,作业区平均相对人工增雨效果为17.5%,通过了0.1的显著性检验,在作业区每年可增加降水33.7 mm,增加径流量0.34×10^(8) m^(3)。同时,通过对作业效果的评估,对最佳作业季节有了新的认识,发现春秋季节的人工增雨效果较好。石羊河流域人工增雨作业期间的径流量增加了3.7%,而对比区径流量则呈下降趋势。通过人工增雨和自然降水的共同作用,2010年以后石羊河流域植被状况改善更为明显,初步结果显示人工增雨对改善石羊河流域生态环境起到了积极作用。The effect of artificial precipitation enhancement has always been a key issue and difficult problem of weather modification,and there is great uncertainty about how to accurately detect the effect of precipitation enhancement after operation from the change of natural rainfall.Shiyang River,which is located at the eastern end of Hexi Corridor in Gansu Province,is an important inland river in this region.It is the main source of local agriculture,ecology and drinking water.However,it is also one of the most densely populated inland river basins in China with severe shortage of water resources and extremely fragile ecological environment.Although the Shiyang River Basin lacks ground water resources,it has very abundant aerial water resources.The scientific development and utilization of aerial cloud water resources through artificial rain enhancement technology has become one of the effective measures to increase local water resources in the basin and alleviate drought.Since 2010,in order to ameliorate adverse ecological and hydrological changes,ground cloud seeding stations has been added from 22 to 71 in Shiyang River Basin,and the seeding operations has also been significantly increased.Therefore,a question of general concern is,what is the effect of the substantial increase in the scale of artificial precipitation?To answer this question,and evaluate the effect of artificial rainfall enhancement after the increase in operation sites and operations,precipitation data of the Shiyang River Basin in the past 10 years(from 2010 to 2019)was collected.Some statistical test methods recommended by Centre for Weather Modification of China Meteorological Administration were adopted in the effect evolution of the increased ground seeding operations during 2010-2019.As a means of certification,the ecological changing trend of runoff,vegetation normalization index,and vegetation coverage percentage were also analyzed in this paper.The results showed that the average relative artificial rainfall enhancement in the basin was

关 键 词：河西走廊 石羊河流域 人工增雨 效果评估 统计方法 

分 类 号：P481[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]