基于Multi-Agent的区域产业协同减排策略研究  

Research on Emission Reduction Policy from the Perspective of Region Industrial Coordination Based on Multi-agent Simulation

作　　者：齐园 李源彬 张永安[2] QI Yuan;LI Yuan-bin;ZHANG Yong-an(School of Civil Engineering,North China University of Technology,Beijing 100144;School of Economics and Management,Beijing University of Technology,Beijing 100122)

机构地区：[1]北方工业大学土木工程学院,北京100144 [2]北京工业大学经济管理学院,北京100122

出　　处：《软科学》2021年第8期100-105,共6页Soft Science

基　　金：北京市自然科学基金项目(8202018);国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0701806);教育部人文社会科学青年基金项目(15YJC630101)。

摘　　要：基于复杂适应性系统理论,构建了以多层次产业部门为主体的产业与大气污染环境演变系统,利用Anylogic 7工具开发仿真环境,自下而上揭示自底层部门结构演变并聚合于系统层面的大气污染特征;以京津冀为实证案例进行减排情境模拟。结果表明:工业化进程中产业结构与大气污染排放的演变曲线为倒"U"型,中高技术部门比重约为10%时出现拐点;北京、天津选择不同工业结构升级、河北采取第二产业、资源密集部门和流通服务业部门联动调整策略情境下,三地将分别减少18%、21%和55%的大气污染排放。Based on Complex Adaptive System,this paper constructs the evolution system of the industrial structure evolution and the air pollution with multi-level industrial sector as the main body.Using Anylogic 7 simulation tool,it reveales the influence regularity of industrial structure evolution on pollution emissionsfrom bottom-up,which finally aggregates at the system level.And then,it simulates Emission reduction scenarios on the basis of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei region.Results show that the characteristics of industrial structure evolution on air pollution emissions in the process of industrialization presents the inverted″U″curve.The inflection point appears when the proportion of medium and high-tech sectors is about 10%.Under the situation that Beijing and Tianjin choose different industrial structure upgrading and Hebei adopts collaborative adjustment strategy of the secondary industry,resource intensive sector and circulation service sector,air pollution emissions would be reducted by 18%,21%and 55%respectively.

关 键 词：多主体仿真 PM2.5排放 产业结构演变 京津冀区域 

分 类 号：X322[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F127[经济管理—世界经济]