全国雷达分钟降水方法在面雨量预报上应用的检验——以巢湖为例  

Erification of the National Radar Minute Precipitation Method Applied in the Area Precipitation Forecast—Taking Chaohu as an Example

作　　者：丁劲 张国平[1] 高金兵 王曙东[1] 王阔音 薛冰[1] 章芳[1] 杨静[1] DING Jin;ZHANG Guo-ping;GAO Jin-bing(Public Meteorological Service Center,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局公共气象服务中心,北京100081

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2021年第17期221-225,229,共6页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2020YFB1600103);国家自然科学基金项目(41871020)。

摘　　要：为了解基于全国雷达分钟降水方法在面雨量上的短期预报效果,利用2020年7月25日08:00—28日08:00安徽巢湖及其子流域的实况面雨量数据,依据平均绝对误差、均方根误差、TS评分、漏报率和空报率几项检验指标,对安徽巢湖及其子流域研究时段内逐小时和累计2 h面雨量预报结果进行检验评估。结果表明,全国雷达分钟降水方法对巢湖北部平原区子流域的预报效果好于南部丘陵地区子流域;累积2 h产品的预报效果好于逐小时产品的预报效果;对小雨量的预报结果优于大雨量的预报结果。In order to understand the short-term forecasting effect on the surface rainfall based on the minute quantitative precipitation forecast(MQPF),the actual surface rainfall data of Anhui Chaohu Lake and its sub-catchments from 08:00 July 25 to 08:00 July 28,2020 were used to rely on the average absolute error,root mean square error,TS score,omission rate and false prediction ratio were several test indicators to test and evaluate the hourly and cumulative 2-h area rainfall forecast results during the study period of Chaohu Lake and its sub-catchments in Anhui.The results showed that the MQPF forecast had a better forecasting effect on the sub-basins in the northern plain area of Chaohu Lake than those in the southern hilly area.More accurate forecast could be seen in cumulative two-hour products than hourly products.The low rainfall level showed better results than the forecast for high rainfall level.

关 键 词：全国雷达分钟降水方法 流域 面雨量 短期预报 检验 

分 类 号：S165[农业科学—农业气象学]