基于模糊事件概率理论的水资源短缺风险阈值分析  

Research on Water Shortage Risk Threshold Evaluation Based on Probability Measure of Fuzzy Event

作　　者：彭慧[1] 曹先玉[1] 梁第[2] 袁成鑫 孙法圣[1] 张雪晶 李维硕 PENG Hui;CAO Xianyu;LIANG Di;YUAN Chengxin;SUN Fasheng;ZHANG Xuejing;LI Weishuo(Shandong Survey and Design Institute of Water Conservancy,Jinan 250014,Shandong,China;Shandong Jianzhu University,Jinan 250101,Shandong,China;Shandong Rencheng Water Resources Bureau,Jining 272000,Shandong,China)

机构地区：[1]山东省水利勘测设计院,山东济南250014 [2]山东建筑大学,山东济南250101 [3]山东省济宁市任城区水务局,山东济宁272000

出　　处：《水力发电》2021年第9期37-40,共4页Water Power

摘　　要：针对水资源供需系统的随机性及模糊性,基于模糊事件概率理论构建水资源短缺风险评价模型,采用α-截集及蒙特卡洛随机模拟混合算法求解风险阈值;并根据风险阈值构建水资源风险评价矩阵进行风险等级评定,提出相应风险应对策略。山东省的实例分析表明,现状年水资源短缺风险率95%的置信区间为[0.5192,1],处于中等及以上风险水平;深化节水型社会建设及供给侧结构改革等风险应对策略后,规划年风险率95%的置信区间降至[0,0.3013],处于较低风险水平,应强化水资源风险前端管控,努力保持较低水平的风险态势。In view of the randomness and fuzziness of the water supply and demand system,a water shortage risk assessment model is constructed based on the approach of probability measure of fuzzy event,and a mixed algorithm combiningα-cut technique and Monte Carlo simulation is developed to determine the risk threshold.Moreover,according to the risk threshold,an evaluation matrix is constructed to evaluate the level of water risk,and then the corresponding risk response strategies are put forward.The application of the model to Shandong Province illustrates that the risk threshold is[0.5192,1]at 95%confidence interval in current year,which is at a medium or high risk level.After deepening the construction of a water-saving society and supply-side structural reforms,the risk threshold is[0,0.3013]at 95%confidence interval in the planning year,which is at a relatively low risk level.The front-end management and control of water risk should be strengthened,and the efforts should be made to maintain a low level of risk.

关 键 词：风险阈值 水资源短缺风险 模糊事件概率理论 蒙特卡洛随机模拟 风险评价矩阵 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源]