入境旅游免签政策的游客吸引效应及其异质性  

ANALYSIS ON THE ATTRACTION EFFECT AND HETEROGENEITY OF VISA-FREE POLICY FOR INBOUND TOURISTS

作　　者：曹翔[1] 张双龙 余升国[1] CAO Xiang;ZHANG Shuang-long;YU Sheng-guo(School of Economics,Hainan University,Haikou 570228,China)

机构地区：[1]海南大学经济学院,海口570228

出　　处：《人文地理》2021年第4期177-184,共8页Human Geography

基　　金：海南大学科研启动项目(kyqd(sk)1904);海南省教育厅项目(Hnjg2020ZD-2);国家自然科学基金项目(71964011)。

摘　　要：本文以中国首个入境旅游免签试点政策为准自然实验,以1996—2016年53个地级市为研究样本,采用双重差分法评估了入境旅游免签政策对入境旅游人数的影响,并进行一系列稳健性检验,最后从客源地异质性和政策调整效应等维度做了进一步分析。研究发现:①入境旅游免签政策的实施显著地促进了入境旅游人数增长;②入境旅游免签政策对欧洲国家的政策效果最好,对亚洲国家和大洋洲国家有显著的正向影响,而对北美洲国家无显著作用;③2010年入境旅游免签政策的调整未能显著吸引入境游客。In 2018,General Secretary Xi Jinping made it clear that"timely summary of the implementation of the visa-free policy for foreigners from 59 countries"when he personally planned a free trade port with Chinese characteristics,but it is rare for scientific and quantitative assessment of the effect of visa-free policy for inbound tourism in China.Therefore this paper takes the China's first travel visa-free entry policy as the research object,and takes 53 cities in 1996-2016 panel data as the research sample.The paper adopts Difference-in-Difference model to assess of the inbound tourism visa-free policy influence on the number of inbound tourism;then conducts a series of robustness tests by the Difference-in-Difference recognition criteria,the placebo,PSM-DID and eliminate interference policy;finally makes further analyses from the dimensions of the heterogeneity of the source of tourists and the effect of policy adjustment.The findings are as follows:Firstly,the implementation of visa-free policy for inbound tourism has significantly promoted the growth of inbound tourists,and has been supported in a series of robustness tests.Secondly,the effect of the visa-free policy for inbound tourism varies significantly from place to place,has the best effect on European countries,has a significant positive impact on Asian countries and Oceania countries,and has no significant effect on North American countries.Thirdly,the changes to the visa-free policy for inbound tourism in 2010 failed to significantly attract inbound tourists.The theoretical and practical significance of this paper are as follows:firstly,this study enriched the research content on the assessment of China's tourism policy,especially to make up for the quantitative assessment of the visa-free policy of inbound tourism;secondly,it provides a reliable empirical basis for further optimizing the visa-free policy for people from 59 countries and expanding the scope of visa-free implementation.

关 键 词：入境旅游免签 入境旅游人数增长 双重差分法 

分 类 号：F592.0[经济管理—旅游管理]