基于非集计模型的中长途客运旅客选择方式  

Passenger Selection Method of Medium and Long Distance Passenger Transport Based on Disaggregate Model

作　　者：邓天民[1] 万桥 冒国韬 谭思奇 DENG Tian-min;WAN Qiao;MAO Guo-tao;TAN Si-qi(College of Traffic and Transportation, Chongqing Jiaotong University, Chongqing 400074, China)

机构地区：[1]重庆交通大学交通运输学院,重庆400074

出　　处：《科学技术与工程》2021年第24期10512-10517,共6页Science Technology and Engineering

基　　金：科技助力经济2020重点专项(SQ2020YFF0418521);中央引导地方科技发展专项(CSTC2020JSCX-DXWTB0003)。

摘　　要：近年来,随着中国高铁的快速发展,给公路客运产生了巨大的冲击。为了提高公路客运企业竞争力,结合中长旅客出行需求和发展态势,笔者从旅客特性、出行特征、运输方式特性等角度,分析了旅客出行行为偏好影响因素,构建了基于非集计的多元Logistic旅客选择方式回归模型。依据北京公路客运数据,对0~400 km和400~800 km的中短途和中长途旅客出行选择行为进行了敏感度分析实验。实验表明:0~400 km中短途出行的旅客对便捷性和准时性的敏感度高,而400~800 km中长途出行的旅客对出行费用、出行时间、舒适性和安全性的敏感度高。In recent years,the rapid development of China’s high-speed railway has had a significant impact on highway passenger transport.Combined with the travel demand of medium and long-distance passengers and development trend,to improve the competitiveness of highway passenger transportation enterprises.The influencing factors of passenger travel behavior preference in terms of passenger characteristics,travel characteristics,transportation mode characteristics were analyzed,and a multivariate Logistic passenger selection mode based on disaggregate model was built.According to Beijing highway passenger transportation data,the sensitivity analysis experiments on the travel selection behavior of passengers in the short and medium distance ranging from 0 to 400 km and medium and long distance ranging from 400 to 800 km were implemented.The results show that passengers with short and medium distance travel of 0~400 km have high sensitivity to convenience along with punctuality,whereas passengers with medium and long distance travel of 400~800 km have high sensitivity to travel cost,travel time,comfort,as well as security.

关 键 词：效用理论 多元Logistic回归模型 出行方式选择 公路客运 

分 类 号：U580.2[交通运输工程]