基于2030年碳减排目标的中国省际碳排放配额研究  

Research on China Provincial Carbon Emission Quota Based on 2030 Carbon Emission Reduction Target

作　　者：邵桂兰[1] 王金 李晨[1] SHAO Guilan;WANG Jin;LI Chen(School of Economics,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China)

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学经济学院,山东青岛266100

出　　处：《山东财经大学学报》2021年第4期13-23,共11页Journal of Shandong University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“我国海洋渔业经济低碳化实现机制研究”(11BJY064)。

摘　　要：作为全球最大的碳排放国,中国面临着巨大的减排压力。为落实我国2030年碳减排目标,利用人口存量、地区GDP、历史碳排放量等体现公平要素的指标,通过ZSG-DEA效率模型构建我国碳排放配额的省际分解方案,并结合碳汇来分析各省、直辖市和自治区今后的碳排放空间。结果表明:在省际碳排放配额方面,差距较为悬殊,山东、广东、江苏三省碳排放配额最多,而青海、海南、宁夏三省(自治区)最少;在此基础上对碳排放空间的研究显示,我国碳排放空间总体呈现出赤字局面,其中陕西、宁夏、新疆、内蒙古、山西五省(自治区)赤字情况较为严重。鉴于各省份面临不同的减排压力,实施差异化的减排政策是保证我国2030年碳减排目标顺利实现的关键。As the world largest carbon emitter, China is facing great pressure in carbon emission reduction. In order to implement China’s 2030 carbon emission reduction target, this study constructs the provincial decomposition scheme of China carbon emission quota through ZSG-DEA efficiency model by using such indicators as population stock, regional GDP and historical carbon emissions which reflect the elements of fairness, and analyzes the future carbon emission space of each province, municipality and autonomous region combined with carbon sink. The results show that there is a wide gap in terms of inter-provincial carbon emission quota: Shandong Province, Guangdong Province and Jiangsu province have the most carbon emission quotas while Qinghai Province, Hainan Province and Ningxia Autonomous Region have the least carbon emission quotas. The research on carbon emission space on this basis shows that China’s carbon emission space presents an overall deficit situation, among which Shaanxi Province, Shanxi Province, and Ningxia, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Regions have a more serious deficit situation. In view of the different emission reduction pressures faced by different provinces and autonomous regions, implementing differentiated emission reduction policies is the key to ensure the smooth realization of China’s 2030 carbon emission reduction target.

关 键 词：碳排放权 省际配额 碳汇 碳排放空间 

分 类 号：F832.5[经济管理—金融学]