中国赴东盟地区旅游安全事故风险因子的组态影响探测——基于HEVP框架的模糊集定性比较分析  

The Detection of the Configuration Impact of the Risk Factor on the Chinese Tourists'Safety Accidents in ASEAN:A Qualitative Comparative Analysis of Fuzzy Sets Based on HEVP Framework

作　　者：黄锐 谢朝武[1,2] HUANG Rui;XIE Chaowu(College of Tourism,Huaqiao University,Quanzhou 362021,Fujian,China;Center for Tourism Safety&Security,Research of China Tourism Academy,Quanzhou 362021,Fujian,China)

机构地区：[1]华侨大学旅游学院,中国福建泉州362021 [2]中国旅游研究院旅游安全研究基地,中国福建泉州362021

出　　处：《经济地理》2021年第7期202-212,共11页Economic Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41971182);教育部人文社会科学项目(19YJAZH097)。

摘　　要：中国与东盟地区旅游交流面临复杂的风险挑战。文章以2013—2019年6798起东盟旅游安全事故为研究对象,采用克里金插值法对旅游安全事故的空间分布进行分析,同时基于危险性(H)—暴露性(E)—脆弱性(V)—保障性(P)分析框架和模糊集定性比较法(fsQCA)对各风险因子的组态影响进行探测。研究表明:①东盟出境旅游安全事故类型和结果具有差异性和复杂性特征。旅游安全事故规模呈现出异质化空间分布格局,泰国曼谷、印尼巴厘岛等部分地区出现了事故规模集聚极化现象。②东盟旅游事故发生是多源风险因子耦合作用的结果,旅游安全事故具有多重风险并发性和因果非对称性,承载主体暴露性因子是高事故规模发生的必要条件,4个变量产生的6种条件组合是解释高、低事故规模的组态路径。③东盟各国旅游安全事故风险因子组态引致路径呈现出较高的区域差异性,不同国家风险因子的异质性和复杂交互作用导致各国呈现出不同的事故分布规模。Tourism exchanges between China and Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN)are facing complex risk challenges.Taking 6798 tourism safety accidents in the regions of ASEAN from 2013 to 2019 as the research object,this paper uses Kriging interpolation method to analyze the spatial distribution of tourism safety accidents.In addition,based on the framework of hazard-exposure-vulnerability-prevention(HEVP)and fuzzy set qualitative comparison method(fsQCA),the paper explores the configuration influence of each risk factor.The results show that:1)It shows the different and complex characteristics on the types and consequences of outbound tourism safety accidents in ASEAN.The scale of tourism safety accidents presents a heterogeneous spatial distribution pattern,and has the phenomenon of agglomeration polarization in some areas such as Bangkok of Thailand and Bali of Indonesia.2)The occurrence of tourism accidents in ASEAN is the result of the coupling effect of multi-source risk factors.Tourism safety accidents have the characteristics of multiple-risk concurrency and causality asymmetry.The exposure factor is the necessary condition for the occurrence of high accident scale.The six condition combinations generated by 4 variables are the confiuration paths to explain the high and low accident scales.3)The configuration path of risk factors of tourism safety accidents in ASEAN shows high regional differences.The heterogeneity and complex interaction of risk factors in different countries lead to different accident distribution scales.

关 键 词：旅游安全事故 HEVP风险因子 组态影响 东盟 出境旅游 自然灾害 集群 

分 类 号：F592[经济管理—旅游管理]