基于相关性与贝叶斯推断的管道腐蚀深度预测方法  

Prediction method of pipeline corrosion depth based on the correlation and Bayesian inference

作　　者：程凯凯 姚继涛[2] 程正杰 代建波[1] 宋梅梅[1] CHENG Kaikai;YAO Jitao;CHENG Zhengjie;DAI Jianbo;SONG Meimei(Mechanical Engineering College,Xi'an Shiyou University;School of Civil Engineering,Xi'an University of Architecture and Technology)

机构地区：[1]西安石油大学机械工程学院,陕西省710065 [2]西安建筑科技大学土木工程学院

出　　处：《油气储运》2021年第8期854-859,共6页Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目“多维多点地震激励下油气长输管道的灾变机理及抗震性能研究”,51808446;陕西省自然科学基础研究项目“基于随机过程的在役油气管道系统时变可靠度分析与优化设计研究”,2019JQ-055;陕西省岩土与地下空间工程重点实验室开放基金资助项目“基于相关性分析的桩基承载力推断及可靠性研究”,YT202008;陕西省重点研发计划项目“在役油气管道应力检测及安全运营监测系统研究”,2019SF-266;陕西省教育厅专项科研计划项目“基于小样本的预制混凝土构件性能可靠性评定”,21JK0834。

摘　　要：管道腐蚀特征值检测样本容量在实际工程中难以达到大样本,导致管道腐蚀评定结果偏于冒进。为此,分析样本容量对推断结果的影响,基于贝叶斯理论及测量不确定性,提出小样本条件下管道腐蚀深度的贝叶斯推断法,进而考虑腐蚀深度与腐蚀长度之间的相关性,建立基于相关性与贝叶斯推断的腐蚀深度预测方法。利用管道腐蚀检测数据对不同缺陷长度下的腐蚀深度代表值进行了推断,验证了该方法的有效性。结果表明:新建立的方法能够更好地反映样本容量对推断结果的影响,预测结果更为保守且与工程经验判断结果一致,对工程应用更加安全有利。研究成果可为管道腐蚀深度的预测提供更准确的信息,同时为考虑随机变量相关性的其他腐蚀管道特征值的预测提供理论参考。The number of samples for detecting corrosion characteristic value is difficult to reach a large enough size in practical engineering,which leads to the pipeline corrosion evaluation results tend to be aggressive.For this reason,the influence of sample size on the inference results was analyzed,and based on the Bayesian theory and the uncertainty of measurement,the Bayesian inference method for the pipeline corrosion depth under the condition of small sample size was proposed.Then,the correlation between the corrosion depth and the length was considered,and the prediction method of corrosion depth based on the correlation and Bayesian inference was developed.Thereby,the corrosion depths under different defect lengths was inferred with the pipeline corrosion detection data,and further the effectiveness of the method was verified.The results indicate that:the new method could better reflect the influence of sample size on the inference results,the prediction results are more conservative and consistent with the engineering experience,and so it is safer and more favorable to the engineering application.The research results could provide more accurate information to the prediction of pipeline corrosion depth,as well as theoretical reference to the prediction of the characteristic value of other corroded pipelines with consideration given to the correlation of random variables.

关 键 词：油气管道 腐蚀深度 区间推断法 小样本容量 贝叶斯推断法 相关性 

分 类 号：TE832[石油与天然气工程—油气储运工程]