崩塌滑坡地质灾害风险排序方法研究  

A study of the risk ranking method of landslides and collapses

作　　者：解明礼 巨能攀[1] 刘蕴琨 刘秀伟 赵伟华[1] 张成强[1] XIE Mingli;JU Nengpan;LIU Yunkun;LIU Xiuwei;ZHAO Weihua;ZHANG Chengqiang(State Key Laboratory of Geological Disaster Prevention and Environmental Protection,Chengdu University of Technology,Chengdu,Sichuan 610059,China;Guizhou Institute of Geo-environment Monitoring,Guiyang,Guizhou 550001,China)

机构地区：[1]成都理工大学地质灾害防治与地质环境保护国家重点实验室,四川成都610059 [2]贵州省地质环境监测院,贵州贵阳550001

出　　处：《水文地质工程地质》2021年第5期184-192,共10页Hydrogeology & Engineering Geology

基　　金：国家创新研究群体科学基金项目(41521002);国家自然科学基金项目(41907250);地质灾害防治与地质环境保护国家重点实验室自主课题(SKLGP2018Z014)。

摘　　要：我国地质灾害具有点多面广的分布特点,而地质灾害风险管控人力和能力有限,因此需要开展地质灾害风险排序工作,筛选出优先管控的地质灾害隐患点,确保地质灾害风险管控对策实施的针对性和高效性。地质灾害风险排序的实质是运用定量化风险评价计算出每处隐患点的风险值,然后根据风险值开展排序工作。目前定量化风险评价模型多用于单个地质灾害点风险评价,并未应用于大范围地质灾害风险排序工作,且模型较为复杂,推广应用较难。在分析崩塌、滑坡地质灾害与其环境因素间的响应关系及规律的基础上,提取崩塌、滑坡地质灾害的主控环境因子与诱发因子,联合人口、物质、资源等易损性因子建立地质灾害风险评价指标体系;基于岩石工程系统相互作用矩阵与专家打分法确定各级地质灾害风险评价指标因子权重,构建地质灾害风险评分体系;并根据风险评价定义,提出了能够快速定量化的简易地质灾害风险计算模型。以贵州省98处地质灾害隐患点为例,开展模型应用验证,风险排序结果与灾害管理机构主观认识的实际风险一致,验证了本模型的合理性与有效性,提高了地质灾害风险管控能力与效率。Geological disasters in China are characterized by multi-point and wide-range distribution,while the manpower and ability of geological disaster risk management and control are relatively limited.Therefore,it is necessary to carry out the sequencing work of geological disaster risk,screen out the geological disaster points for priority control and control,and ensure the pertinency and efficiency of the implementation of geological disaster risk management and control countermeasures.The essence of geological hazard risk ranking is to use quantitative risk evaluation to calculate the risk value of each disaster point,and then carry out the ranking work according to the risk value.At present,the quantitative risk assessment model is mostly used in the risk assessment of a single geological disaster point,but is not applied in the risk ranking work of a wide range of geological disasters.Moreover,the model is relatively complex,so it is difficult to popularize and use it.Based on the analysis of the response relationship and law between the collapse-landslide geological disasters and its environmental factors,this paper extracts the main controlling environmental factors and inducing factors of the collapse landslide geological disasters,and establishes the risk evaluation index system of geological disasters together with the vulnerable factors such as population,material and resources.Based on the interaction matrix of rock engineering system(RES)and expert scoring method,the weight of each level of geological hazard risk evaluation index factor is determined,and the geological hazard risk scoring system is constructed.According to the definition of risk assessment,a simple geological hazard risk calculation model which can be quantified quickly is proposed.Taking 98 potential geological hazards in Guizhou province as an example,the model verification and application were carried out by taking 98 potential geological hazards in Guizhou province as examples.The risk ranking results are consistent with the actual ri

关 键 词：地质灾害 崩塌 滑坡 风险评价 岩石工程系统 风险排序 防灾减灾 

分 类 号：P642.2[天文地球—工程地质学]