东北地区“低生育率陷阱”探析  

Analysis on the“Low Fertility Trap”in Northeast China

作　　者：孙晓霞[1] 于潇[2] SUN Xiaoxia;YU Xiao(College of Economics,Jilin University of Finance and Economics,Changchun Jilin,130117,China;Northeast Asian Research Center,Jilin University,Changchun Jilin,130012,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林财经大学经济学院,吉林长春130117 [2]吉林大学东北亚研究中心,吉林长春130012

出　　处：《人口学刊》2021年第5期29-38,共10页Population Journal

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目:东北地区超低生育率水平研究(19BRK028)。

摘　　要：20世纪80年代以来东北地区生育水平不断下降,人口自然增长率、总和生育率一直低于全国平均水平,如何认识当前东北地区存在的超低生育率现象,判断东北地区生育率的未来走势,解析生育率、生育意愿、生育行为等影响因素及其作用路径是亟待解决的人口问题。同时,超低的生育率水平使人口老龄化程度加快、养老金支付压力增大、人口红利减少,进而影响劳动力供给与经济增长。找到破解东北地区人口难题的途径与对策,实施东北老工业基地振兴战略,促进东北地区经济发展是刻不容缓的经济问题。文章以"低生育率陷阱"理论为基础,从人口学、社会学以及经济学三个自我强化机制入手,选取育龄妇女规模结构、育龄妇女婚姻状态和代际关系转变三个维度剖析东北地区低生育率问题,东北地区已成为全国生育率最低的地区,从东北地区发展的现实来看,在城市化改造、经济水平提高、人口流动等多方面因素共同作用下,生育率的下降趋势短期内几乎不可能逆转,东北地区已经陷入了"低生育率陷阱"之中。通过增加育龄妇女的在婚比例、提高育龄妇女的医疗和教育水平、逐步调整完善生育配套政策等措施提高东北地区生育水平,逐渐摆脱"低生育率陷阱",实现东北地区人口、经济、社会的协调与可持续发展。Since the 1980’s,the fertility level in Northeast China has been declining,the natural growth rate of population and the total fertility rate have been lower than the national average level.How to understand the phenomenon of ultra-low fertility rate,to judge the future trend of fertility rate in Northeast China,to analyze fertility rate,fertility intention,fertility behavior and other influencing factors and their action path,are the population issue to be solved urgently.At the same time,the ultra-low fertility rate accelerates the aging of the population,increases the pressure of pension payment,and reduces the demographic dividend,and then affects the labor supply and economic growth.It is also an urgent economic problem to find the way and countermeasure to solve the population problem in Northeast China,to carry out the revitalization strategy of the old industrial base and to promote the economic development in Northeast China.The paper analyzes the"low fertility trap"in Northeast China from three dimensions:the scale structure of women of childbearing age,the marital status of women of childbearing age and the change of intergenerational relationship.The analysis is based on the theory of the"low fertility trap"and starts with three self-reinforcing mechanisms of demography,sociology and economics according to sixth nationwide population census data,1%sample survey data and statistical yearbook.The paper points out that Northeast China has become the region with the lowest fertility rate in China.From the perspective of the reality of development in Northeast China,the declining trend of fertility rate is almost impossible to reverse in the short term,and Northeast China has entered into a"low fertility trap"under the combined action of many factors such as urbanization,improvement of economic level and population mobility.By increasing the proportion of women of childbearing age in marriage,improving the level of health care and education of women of childbearing age,and gradually adjusting and perfect

关 键 词：东北地区 超低生育率 低生育率陷阱 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学]