市场潜能对流动人口居留意愿的影响研究  

Research on the Influence of Market Potential on the Resident Willingness of Floating Population

作　　者：边恕[1] 张铭志 王玥[1] BIAN Shu;ZHANG Mingzhi;WANG Yue(School of Public Administration,Liaoning University,Shenyang Liaoning,110136,China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁大学公共管理学院,辽宁沈阳110136

出　　处：《人口学刊》2021年第5期53-66,共14页Population Journal

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目:中国城乡相对贫困的动态标准制定与多元协同治理研究(20BSH101);国家社会科学基金项目:低生育率背景下构建职业女性“生育友好型”就业支持体系研究(20BRK001)。

摘　　要：文章使用2017年中国流动人口动态监测调查(CMDS)数据,在新经济地理学的前向联系理论框架下,构建Probit、工具变量和倾向得分匹配等模型研究市场潜能对流动人口居留意愿的影响效应与影响机制。研究发现市场潜能对于流动人口居留意愿的提高产生显著正向作用,市场潜能每增加一个单位,流动人口在流入地的居留意愿提高2.5%。为了克服可能存在的内生性问题,文章以地理中心度这一不随时间变动的客观变量作为工具变量,并使用倾向得分匹配模型进行稳健性检验,两种方法得到的结果表明上述结论依然成立。异质性分析发现市场潜能对于流动人口居留意愿的影响存在明显的代际间差异和学历间差异,相比之下,"80后"新生代流动人口和高技能流动人口的居留意愿受到市场潜能的正向影响更加显著。市场潜能通过预期收入效应、公共服务效应和心理认同效应促进流动人口居留意愿的增加,对比来看,公共服务的中介效应影响作用最大,预期收入次之,心理认同最低。基于以上分析,文章认为既要增加中西部经济集聚度以提高市场潜能、稳定流动人口居留预期,也要重视解决流动人口在大城市的高居留意愿与人口调控压力之间的矛盾,合理施策以实现有序集聚与有机疏解。The article uses the 2017 China Migrants Dynamic Survey(CMDS)data,under the framework of the forward linkage theory of new economic geography,constructs models such as Probit,instrumental variables and propensity score matching to study the effect of market potential on the willingness to stay of the floating population and influence mechanism.The study found that market potential has a significant positive effect on the increase of the floating population’s willingness to stay.For every unit increase in market potential,the floating population’s willingness to stay in the place of inflow increases by 2.5%.In order to overcome the possible endogenous problems,the article uses geographic centrality,an objective variable that does not change with time,as an instrumental variable,and uses a propensity score matching model to test the robustness.The results obtained by the two methods show that the above conclusions are still valid.The analysis of heterogeneity found that the influence of market potential on the willingness to stay of the floating population has obvious inter-generational differences and differences between educational backgrounds.In contrast,the new generation of floating population and the high-skilled floating population born in the 1980 s are affected by market potential.The positive impact is more significant.The market potential promotes the increase of migrants’willingness to stay through expected income effects,public service effects,and psychological identification effects.In contrast,the mediating effect of public services has the greatest impact,followed by expected income,and psychological identification is the lowest.Based on the above analysis,the article believes that it is necessary to increase the economic agglomeration in the central and western regions to increase market potential and stabilize the expectation of migrants’residence,but also to address the contradiction between the high willingness of migrants to stay in big cities and the pressure of population regulation,a

关 键 词：市场潜能 流动人口 居留意愿 新经济地理学 

分 类 号：C922[社会学—人口学]