上海市新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情时空扩散特征和防控效果分析  

Spatiotemporal characteristics,prevention and control of COVID-19 epidemic in Shanghai:an analysis on registry data

作　　者：肖文佳[1] 宫霄欢[1] 俞晓 崔鹏 林声 韩若冰 姜晨彦[1] 方绮雯 毛盛华[1] 潘浩[1] 吴寰宇[1] 袁政安[2] XIAO Wen-jia;GONG Xiao-huan;YU Xiao(Institute of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control,Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Shanghai 200336,China)

机构地区：[1]上海市疾病预防控制中心传染病防治所,200336 [2]上海市疾病预防控制中心

出　　处：《中国公共卫生》2021年第7期1052-1058,共7页Chinese Journal of Public Health

基　　金：上海市科学技术委员会项目–新型冠状病毒肺炎血清流行病学及感染传播风险研究(20JC1410200)。

摘　　要：目的对上海市2020年1月20日—3月24日报告的所有新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)确诊病例进行疫情特征和防控情况分析,掌握本市疫情时空扩散特征、传播和变动的空间差异及与落实的防控措施之间的内在联系。方法通过整理上海市卫生健康委员会官方网站疫情通告和COVID-19确诊病例流行病学调查资料,收集汇总病例的年龄、性别、确诊日期、感染来源等,运用描述性流行病学方法分析本市COVID-19确诊病例的疫情扩散特征和采取的各项防控措施。结果上海市COVID-19确诊病例中,18~40岁青年人感染的比重较大,占39.03%(169/433);疫情共分为5个阶段,分别为第一次缓慢上升阶段、高速增长阶段、升速放缓阶段、维持“0”报告阶段和再次缓慢上升阶段;各阶段各类COVID-19确诊病例的报告和上海市采取的各项防控措施密不可分;本市疫情扩散比最高为0.5022,各区在不同疫情发展阶段,疫情扩散比均表现为不同形态;总体而言,上海市COVID-19疫情防控措施是卓有成效的。结论上海市疫情已进入新的防控阶段,应根据国外COVID-19疫情形势,采取针对性的防控措施,及时发现境外输入性病例。Objective To analyze epidemiological characteristics of confirmed coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)cases reported from January 20 to March 24,2020 and the effectiveness of prevention and control measures on COVID-19 epidemic in Shanghai city.Methods Through China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention and the official website of Shanghai Municipal Health Commission,we collected detailed data on all confirmed COVID-19 cases reported during the period in Shanghai city and analyzed the data using descriptive epidemiological methods.Results Of 433 confirmed COVID-19 cases registered during the period in the city,169(39.03%)were aged 18–40 years.The trajectory of this COVID-19 epidemic in Shanghai city could be divided into five stages of the first slowly rising,rapidly rising,slowing down rising,transient zero reporting,and the second slowly rising.The stage transition of the epidemic was closely related to the implementation of prevention and control measures.The highest observed daily ratio of local infected cases/imported cases was 0.5022 and the ratio varied in different epidemic stages and administrative regions of the city.The implemented measures against COVID-19 epidemic are generally effective in Shanghai city.Conclusion Detection of imported cases in time and development of targeted measures should be strengthened in future prevention and control of COVID-19 epidemic in Shanghai city.

关 键 词：新型冠状病毒肺炎 时空扩散 防控措施 

分 类 号：R183[医药卫生—流行病学]