常态化新冠疫情防控背景下我国公众高遵从行为影响因素重要性研究-基于随机森林模型  

Major influencing factors of high public compliance behavior in China during regular prevention and control of COVID-19 epidemic:a random forest model analysis

作　　者：宁良文 郝艳华[1] 刘泽 牛金玉 毕雪晶[1] 张鹏[1] 康正[1] 杨超[2] NING Liang-wen;HAO Yan-hua;LIU Ze(Harbin Medical University,Harbin,Heilongjiang Province 150081,China)

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨医科大学,黑龙江哈尔滨150081 [2]哈尔滨市疾病预防控制中心

出　　处：《中国公共卫生》2021年第7期1096-1100,共5页Chinese Journal of Public Health

基　　金：国家自然科学基金新冠肺炎疫情专项项目(72042001);国家自然科学基金(71673072);黑龙江省公共健康安全及医改策略研究高端智库(18ZK010)。

摘　　要：目的了解我国公众疫情常态化战略下高遵从行为现状,探讨其影响因素重要性排序,为提高公众高遵从行为和我国疫情常态化防控管理工作提供建议。方法2020年8月3日—13日,采用网络调查方法,选取我国31个省市自治区共19132名居民作为调查对象,运用描述性分析、χ^(2)检验和随机森林模型进行统计分析。结果49.6%的公众采取了高水平的高遵从行为,其中58.2%的人一直坚持戴口罩,49.1%的人一直坚持不聚集,46.9%的公众一直坚持少外出;随机森林结果显示影响我国公众高遵从行为影响因素的重要性排序为利他观念、健康需求、政府规范、知识、自律、群体压力和严重性认知;佩戴口罩不舒服(81.1%)、心理疲惫(74.9%)以及物资消耗大(51.7%)是我国公众高遵从行为存在的主要问题。结论我国公众采取高遵从行为情况尚需提高,利他观念是最重要影响因素。建议相关部门大力弘扬我国优秀传统文化,针对不同群体加强疫情防控知识的宣传,保障防护物资供应。Objective To examine the public′s high compliance behavior and its major influencing factors under regular prevention and control of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)epidemic for promoting the epidemic control-related high compliance behavior and developing strategies on regular management of the epidemic control in China.Methods An online voluntary anonymous questionnaire survey was conducted during August 3–13,2020 among 19132 adult residents(≥18 years old)in 31 provincial level administrative regions across China.Descriptive statistics,χ^(2)test,logistic regression and random forest model were adopted in analyses on the data collected.Results High compliance behaviors were reported by 49.6%of the respondents;the proportions of respondents were 58.2%,49.1%,and 46.9%for reporting persistent compliance with wearing a mask,not participating in public gathering,and avoiding unnecessary going-out.The results of random forest model analysis revealed that major factors promoting high compliance behaviors were altruism,health needs,government norms,knowledge,self-discipline,group pressure,and perceived severity in a descending order of effect intensity.Major factors hindering high compliance behaviors included physical discomfort,psychological fatigue,and material consumption,which were reported by 81.1%,74.9%,and 51.7%of the respondents,respectively.Conclusion The compliance with regular prevention and control of COVID-19 epidemic needs to be improved in the public in China and altruism is the most important factor influencing the compliance.Specific measures should be developed by relevant departments among various populations to promote the compliance.

关 键 词：常态化防控 高遵从行为 随机森林 

分 类 号：R193.3[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]