新发现麻风病患者2级畸残的影响因素  

Risk factors for grade 2 disability in newly detected leprosy cases

作　　者：叶云凤 黄燕惠[1] 李丽梅[1] 黄李成 黎静 黄俊新[3] 黄志明[1] Ye Yunfeng;Huang Yanhui;Li Limei;Huang Licheng;Li Jing;Huang Junxin;Huang Zhiming(Department of Leprosy Prevention and Control,Baocui Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Control,Shenzhen 518100,Guangdong,China;Department of Venereal Disease Prevention and Control,Baoan Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Control,Shenzhen 518100,Guangdong,China;department of Venereal and Leprosy Prevention and Control,Shenzhen Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Treatment,Shenzhen 518000,Guangdong,China)

机构地区：[1]深圳市宝安区慢性病防治院麻风病防制科,广东深圳518100 [2]深圳市宝安区慢性病防治院性病防制科,广东深圳518100 [3]深圳市慢性病防治中心性病麻风病防控科,广东深圳518000

出　　处：《国际流行病学传染病学杂志》2021年第4期307-310,共4页International Journal of Epidemiology and Infectious Disease

基　　金：宝安区医疗卫生基础研究项目(2020JD105)。

摘　　要：目的:探讨新发现麻风病患者2级畸残发生的影响因素。方法:回顾性研究1991—2019年深圳市宝安区慢性病防治院新发现的95例麻风病患者,建立非条件Logistic回归分析模型,分析麻风病2级畸残的影响因素。结果:非条件Logistic回归分析模型中纳入的变量有2条以上神经损害(OR=9.58,95%CI:1.89~48.43)、来源于二类地区(OR=5.04,95%CI:1.36~18.62)和家内接触史(OR=8.89,95%CI:2.01~39.39)是患者发生2级畸残的独立危险因素。建立风险模型为P=1/1+exp[-(-4.49+2.26X_(5)+1.62X_(6)+2.17X_(7))](X_(5)为神经损害,X_(6)为来源地区,X7为接触史),经拟合优度检验显示拟合较好,总的预测准确率为85.9%。结论:多神经损害、来自二类地区和有家内接触史是麻风病患者发生2级畸残的独立危险因素,加强对高危人群的早期筛查和宣教有助于预防麻风2级畸残的发生。Objective To analyze inlueneing facors of grade 2 disabilit in newly detected leprosy cases.Methods Data for 95 newly detected leprosy patients from Baoan Center for Chronie Disease Prevention and Control during 1991 and 2019 were obtained and retrospectively analyzed.Non-conditional Logistic regression analysis model was used to analyze infuencing factors of grade 2 disability in these patients.Results The variables which included in the equations of Logistie regression analysis were with muliple nerve damages(OR=9.58,95%C1:1.89-48.43),patients originated from the second calegory areas(OR=5.04,95%C1:1.36-18.62)and family contact history(OR=8.89,95%C:2.01-39.39),and these factors were independent risk factors for the development of grade 2 disability.The equations of Logistic rgression analysis was P=1/1+exp[-(-4.49+2.26X_(5)+1.62X_(6)+2.17X_(7))](X_(5)(X_(5):nerve damage,X6:originated areas,X7:contact history).The model fited well by the test of goodness of fit,and the total prediction accuracy was 85.9%.Conclusions Multiple nerve damage,originated from the second category areas and family contact history are independent risk factors for grade 2 deformity in new leprosy cases.Strengthening leprosy early detection and education among high-risk groups is helpful to prevent the development of grade 2 disability.

关 键 词：麻风病 畸残 危险因素 LOGISTIC回归分析 风险模型 

分 类 号：R755[医药卫生—皮肤病学与性病学]