基于改进云模型的南水北调东线工程效益评价  

Benefit evaluation of Eastern Route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project based on improved cloud model

作　　者：杨子桐 黄显峰[1] 方国华[1] 叶健[2] 陆承璇 YANG Zitong;HUANG Xianfeng;FANG Guohua;Ye Jian;LU ChengXuan(College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Water Resources Department of Jiangsu Province,Nanjing 210029,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水利水电学院,江苏南京210098 [2]江苏省水利厅,江苏南京210029

出　　处：《水利水电科技进展》2021年第4期60-66,80,共8页Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2018YFE0128500);中央高校基本科研业务费专项(2019B11014)。

摘　　要：根据云模型相关概念,针对南水北调东线工程效益评价结果单一、指标评价存在随机性和模糊性的问题,构建了基于组合权重和改进云模型的综合评价方法,并参照有限区间理论进行改进。该方法将G1和改进CRITIC赋权法组合得到的权重与改进梯形云模型求解得到的指标隶属度相结合,实现对南水北调东线工程效益的综合评价。以南水北调东线一期江苏段为例,从成本分析和效益分析两方面对工程效益评价影响因素进行分类,构建了工程效益评价指标体系,包括固定投资、年运行费、流动资金、经济效益、社会效益、生态效益这6个方面,共20个指标,确定了各项指标对应不同等级的标准,验证了提出的南水北调东线一期江苏段工程效益评价体系与评价方法的有效性与适用性。According to the related concepts of cloud model and the limited interval theory,the comprehensive evaluation method based on combination weight and improved cloud model is adopted to solve the problems of single result of benefit evaluation,randomness and fuzziness of index evaluation of the Eastern Route of South-to-North Water TransferProject.The method combines the weight obtained by G1 and improved CRITIC weight method with the index membership degree obtained by the improved trapezoidal cloud model to realize the comprehensive evaluation of the project benefits.Taking the first phase of the Eastern Route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project in Jiangsu as an example,the influencing factors of project benefit evaluation were classified from cost analysis and benefit analysis,and the engineering benefit evaluation index system was constructed,including six aspects of fixed investment,annual operation cost,working capital,economic benefit,social benefit and ecological benefit,containing a total of 20 indexes with determined hierarchical standards.The effectiveness and applicability of the proposed evaluation system and method for the Eastern Route of South-to-North Water Transfer ProjectinJiangsu were verified.

关 键 词：南水北调 效益评价 改进CRITIC赋权法 改进云模型 

分 类 号：TV213.9[水利工程—水文学及水资源]