考虑多重关联性和动态随机性的城市关键基础设施运行风险概率评估研究  

Research on operational risk probability assessment for urban critical infrastructures considering multi-interdependency and dynamic stochasticity

作　　者：索玮岚 陈发动 张磊[3] SUO Weilan;CHEN Fadong;ZHANG Lei(Institutes of Science and Development,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China;School of Management,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310058,China;School of Economics and Management,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院,北京100190 [2]浙江大学管理学院,浙江杭州310058 [3]北京交通大学经济管理学院,北京100044

出　　处：《管理工程学报》2021年第5期225-235,共11页Journal of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71673267、72074207、71803174)。

摘　　要：本文针对城市关键基础设施运行风险的多重关联性和动态随机性表征,从关联类型划分、关联衍生原因、关联演化状态、关联结构表征、关联影响效应等视角来分别开展多系统关联和多风险关联的演化机理分析,进而依托多源异构信息获取与处理技术构建考虑多重关联性和动态随机性的城市关键基础设施运行风险概率评估两阶段模型,并通过实证研究来验证所给模型的有效性和优越性。结果表明:实证对象的城市关键基础设施运行风险概率呈现出先短暂回落再持续上升的季节性动态演化趋势;各风险因素的影响力呈现出动态变化特征,不同时间节点需要重点防范和化解的风险根源各不相同;风险因素的可控性程度呈现动态变化特征,但原因型或结果型归类保持不变;个别风险因素表现出周期性爆发的特征。基于上述研究结果,建议将风险因素的影响力和可控性作为开展风险防范与化解工作的重要突破口,并给出了针对性的对策建议。With the acceleration of urbanization in recent years,the operational pressure of urban critical infrastructures,which include gas,electricity,heating,transport,water supply,and drainage systems,has increased continually.Frequent accidents,such as gas leakage,power interruption,heating pipeline burst,road collapse,and urban water logging,seriously threaten the lives and properties of citizens and the daily operation of urban critical infrastructures.Risk probability is an important basis for judging risk profiles and further preventing and mitigating risks.The scientific assessment of operational risk probability for urban critical infrastructures has attracted increasing attention from academia and government departments,and it has become a research focus in the field of public safety.Urban critical infrastructures are regarded as an OCGS(Open Complex Giant Systems).The multisystem interdependency derived from urban critical infrastructures and the potential multirisk interdependency accompanying the operational process of urban critical infrastructures are combined to induce the characterization of multi-interdependency and dynamic stochasticity,both of which influence the assessment of operational risk probability for urban critical infrastructures.Existing studies only involve a single characterization of multi-interdependency or dynamic stochasticity and perhaps a certain aspect thereof,thereby disenabling the accurate assessment of operational risk probability for urban critical infrastructures under the premise of two characterizations.Therefore,it is necessary to explore a new method for solving the aforementioned problem.In this study,an evolution mechanism analysis of multisystem interdependency and multirisk interdependency is conducted from the five aspects of interdependency classification,interdependency derivative reason,interdependency evolution state,interdependency structure characterization,and interdependency influence effect,respectively.Subsequently,considering the multi-interdependency and

关 键 词：城市关键基础设施 运行风险概率评估 多重关联性 动态随机性 两阶段模型 

分 类 号：N949[自然科学总论—系统科学]