达州市城区环境空气质量变化趋势及CMAQ模型预报分析  

Analysis of Ambient Air Quality Variation Trend and CMAQ Model Forecast System in Urban Areas of Dazhou City

作　　者：肖德林 邓仕槐 邓小函 张余 XIAO Delin;DENG Shihuai;DENG Xiaohan;ZHANG Yu(College of Environmental Sciences,Sichuan Agricultural University,Chengdu 611130,China;Dazhou Ecological Environment Monitoring Center Station of Sichuan Province,Dazhou 635000,China)

机构地区：[1]四川农业大学环境学院,四川成都611130 [2]四川省达州生态环境监测中心站,四川达州635000

出　　处：《中国环境监测》2021年第4期92-103,共12页Environmental Monitoring in China

基　　金：四川省生态环境重大专项(2019YFS0502)。

摘　　要：利用Spearman秩相关系数法、污染日历图、浓度分析法和CMAQ预测模型研究了达州市城区2015—2019年空气质量状况。结果表明:2015—2019年,达州市城区O_(3) 浓度变化趋势为显著上升(P<0.05),季度变化明显,8月易发生因O_(3) 超标导致的轻度污染状况;CO年均值变化趋势为显著降低(P<0.05);NO_(2)年均值呈上升趋势,但尚未达到显著水平(P>0.05);SO_(2)、PM_(10)和PM_(2.5)年均值呈下降趋势,但变化趋势不明显(P>0.05)。2019年,1月和12月污染最重,PM_(2.5)超标是主因,PM_(10)和PM_(2.5)年均值达标形势严峻,全年一半以上天数的PM_(2.5)浓度超过年均值二级标准限值,PM_(10)也近半;NO_(2)年均值达标形势严峻,全年212 d超过年均值二级标准限值。CMAQ模型对不同污染指标的预测准确率不同,预测PM_(2.5)浓度、首要污染物和空气质量等级时的准确率不及人工预测,预测AQI时的准确率高于人工预测,更多污染指标的预测比较还有待进一步研究。The air quality of Dazhou City in 2015-2019 was studied by using Spearman rank correlation coefficient method,pollution calendar,concentration analysis method and CMAQ prediction model.The results showed that the change trend of O_(3) in the main urban area of Dazhou City in 2015-2019 was significantly increased (P<0.05),the quarterly change trend of O_(3) concentration was obvious.In August,mild pollution caused by excessive O_(3) was prone to occur.The change trend of CO annual concentration in 2015-2019 was significantly reduced (P<0.05).NO_(2) annual average concentration showed an upward trend in the pass five years,but had not yet reached a significant level (P>0.05).The average annual concentration of SO_(2),PM10and PM2.5showed a downward trend for the pass five years,but the change trend was not obvious (P>0.05).The heaviest pollution occurred in January and December 2019,and PM2.5exceeding the standard was the main cause.The situation of PM10and PM2.5annual average concentrations meeting national secondary standard was grim,and more than half of the days of the whole year PM2.5exceeded the national secondary standard of the annual average concentration,and the PM10was nearly half.The situation of the annual average concentration reaching the national secondary standard in 2019 was grim,and the NO_(2) daily average concentration exceeded the annual average concentration secondary standard for 212 days in 2019.CMAQ model predicts different pollution indexes with different accuracy.The accuracy of CMAQ model to predict PM2.5concentration,primary pollutant and air quality grade is less than that of manual prediction,while the accuracy of AQI prediction is higher than that of manual prediction.The prediction comparison of more pollution indexes needs to be further studied.

关 键 词：达州市 大气污染物 Spearman秩相关系数 CMAQ预测模型 

分 类 号：X823[环境科学与工程—环境工程]