江苏省1981—2020年倒春寒气象指标研究  

Meteorological Indexes of Late Spring Cold in Jiangsu Province

作　　者：卢尧 沈阳[2] 杨琼琼 姜麟[2] LU Yao;SHEN Yang;YANG Qiongqiong;JIANG Lin(Wuhu Meteorological Bureau,Wuhu 241000,Anhui China;Jiangsu Meteorological Observatory,Nanjing 210008,China)

机构地区：[1]芜湖气象局,安徽芜湖241000 [2]江苏省气象台,南京210008

出　　处：《河南科学》2021年第8期1333-1339,共7页Henan Science

基　　金：国家重点研发计划课题(2019YFD1002201);芜湖市气象局研究项目(202102);江苏省气象局面上研究项目(KM202001)。

摘　　要：利用1981—2020年3—4月江苏省所属的13个地级市逐日平均温度和最低温度记录,选取“持续日数D”和“过程平均最低温度-T”2个因子的50%、80%分位数,建立了基于百分位数法的分区倒春寒指标,将倒春寒分为轻、中、重3级.研究结论如下:1981—2020年,扬州倒春寒总频次最少,镇江最多;泰州、镇江、常州和无锡4个市年均倒春寒频次高于全省平均值.随着倒春寒严重程度加深,相应等级事件中心自江苏东南部地区逐渐向西、向北转移.分区统计表明,江南地区倒春寒最为频繁,其所有等级倒春寒平均频次均显著高于其他地区.影响不同地区不同等级倒春寒的因子相对重要性存在差别,应更多关注重度倒春寒频次的演变趋势.基于该倒春寒指标判定的重度倒春寒事件,与《中国气象灾害大典(江苏卷)》记录完全一致,充分证明了该指标在江苏地区具备完善的合理性和可用性.Using the daily average temperature and daily minimum temperature records of 13 cities in Jiangsu Province from March to April from 1981 to 2020,a set of regional index of late spring cold was designed.It was classified to three levels:Light,moderate and severe,based on the 50%and 80%percentiles of“duration days D”and“average minimum temperature-T”.From 1981 to 2020,the total frequency of late spring cold in Yangzhou was the least,and that in Zhenjiang is the most.The average annual frequencies of late spring cold in Taizhou,Zhenjiang,Changzhou and Wuxi were higher than that in the whole province.With the aggravation of the late spring cold,the corresponding level event center gradually shifted from the southeast of Jiangsu Province to the West and North.The regional statistics show that late spring cold in the Jiangnan region is most frequent.The frequency of all grades of late spring cold in the Jiangnan region was significantly higher than that in other regions.There was a difference in the relative importance of factors affecting different grades of late spring cold in different regions.More attention should be paid to the evolution trend of severe late spring cold frequency.The severe level events,determined according to the index designed in this paper,are completely consistent with the records of Dictionary of Meteorological Disasters in China(Jiangsu Volume),which fully proves that the indexes have good rationality and availability in Jiangsu.

关 键 词：倒春寒 入春时间 百分位数 分级指标 

分 类 号：P423.3[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]