雷达资料在河南省夏季雷电临近预报中的应用研究  

Application of Radar Data in Summer Thunderstorm Forecast in Henan Province

作　　者：杨美荣 YANG Meirong(Henan Meteorological Disaster Prevention Technology Center,Zhengzhou 450003,China)

机构地区：[1]河南省气象灾害防御技术中心,郑州450003

出　　处：《河南科学》2021年第8期1351-1356,共6页Henan Science

基　　金：中国气象局河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点实验室项目(KM201924)。

摘　　要：利用河南省三维闪电探测系统资料、新一代天气雷达资料和探空资料,选取河南省2018年6月—8月25次对流单体天气过程,对比分析了雷暴单体和非雷暴单体的雷达回波特征,统计了雷暴初始闪电的特征,总结了河南省雷暴单体初始闪电的临近预报指标,并对初始地闪阶段雷达参量与雷暴未来电活动强度的关系进行了分析.结果表明:所选雷暴单体中,初始云闪提前于初始地闪的有12次,占比63.2%;初始地闪为负地闪的雷暴单体占比84.2%;比较适合河南省夏季雷电临近预报的雷达参量为30 dBZ回波顶高和7 km高度强回波面积,利用这两个参量可以使雷电临近预报临界成功指数达到95%,初始地闪预报时间提前约20 min;初步利用雷达参量与雷暴未来闪电数量进行相关性分析,发现初始地闪阶段40 dBZ回波顶高与最初半小时闪电数量的相关系数为0.82,说明初始地闪发生时的雷达参量可以较好地指示雷暴未来半小时电活动强度.Based on the 3D-Lightning data,the new generation weather radar data and the radiosonde data of Henan Province,the 25 weather processes of convection cell from June to August of 2018 in Henan Province were selected,the characteristics of initial lightning of thunderstorm were analyzed,and the radar echo characteristics of thunderstorm and non-thunderstorm were compared and analyzed.The relationship between radar parameters and thunderstorm activity intensity is analyzed.The results show that there were 12 cloud flashes ahead of the initial ground flashes,accounting for 63.2%.The proportion of thunderstorms with negative initial ground lightning was 84.2%.The radar parameters suitable for the early warning of convective thunderstorm in Henan Province in summer are 30 dBZ echo top height and 7 km high strong echo area.Using these two radar parameters,the critical success index of thunderstorm forecast can reach 95%,and the forecast time of initial ground lightning can be moved up for 20 min.The correlation coefficient between the top height of 40 dBZ echo and the number of lightning in the first half hour is 0.82,indicating that the radar parameters at the time of initial lightning can better indicate the electric activity intensity of thunderstorm in the next half hour.

关 键 词：雷电预警 初始闪电 雷暴单体 雷达参量 

分 类 号：P457.9[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]