2010—2017年基于Joinpoint回归模型上海长宁区中小学生伤害趋势分析  

Joinpoint regression analysis of injury tendency among students in Changning District,Shanghai in 2010-2017

作　　者：高慧 陈馨馨 姜玉[1] 张磊[1] 顾佳玲 庞红[1] 夏庆华[1] GAO Hui;CHEN Xinxin;JIANG Yu;ZHANG Lei;GU Jialing;PANG Hong;XIA Qinghua(Changning Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Shanghai 200051,China)

机构地区：[1]上海市长宁区疾病预防控制中心慢防科,上海200051

出　　处：《公共卫生与预防医学》2021年第5期24-27,共4页Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine

摘　　要：目的研究分析上海市长宁区中小学生伤害发生的现状及其年变化趋势,为防控决策提供科学依据。方法收集上海长宁区中小学生2010—2017学年因病缺课系统各类型伤害发生的监测数据,采用Joinpoint软件计算伤害发生率的年度变化百分比和平均年度变化百分比,并进行趋势检验。结果2010—2017学年长宁区中小学生共计发生各类型伤害事件2286人次,伤害发生率约为0.70%,伤害发生率顺位前3依次为跌倒坠落、交通事故、烧烫伤。Joinpoint趋势检验结果表明,长宁区中小学生伤害发生率总体呈降低趋势。在伤害发生类型上,该下降趋势主要是由于跌倒坠落、交通事故和烧烫伤这3种类型的伤害发生率降低所致;在伤害发生群体上,主要是由于小学生群体的伤害发生率降低所致。结论上海市长宁区中小学生伤害发生的整体情况有明显改善,但跌倒坠落和交通事故仍是当前中小学生的重要健康威胁。相关部门应适当加强针对初高中、中职和特殊教育等群体的伤害防控宣传。Objective To investigate the current situation and annual trend of injuries among primary and middle school students in Changning District,Shanghai,and to provide scientific evidence for decision-making of prevention and control.Methods The monitoring data of various types of injuries was collected from the“cause of class absence”system during the 2010-2017 school years.The Joinpoint regression analysis was used to estimate the annual percent change and average annual percent change,and to perform the trend test.Results During the 2010-2017 school years in Changning District,a total of 2286 cases of injuries occurred among primary and middle school students,with an injury rate of about 0.70%.The top three prevalent injury types were falls,traffic accidents,and burn-related injury.The results of Joinpoint trend analysis indicated that the incidence of total injuries in Changning District was generally decreasing,which was mainly due to the effective control of injuries caused by falls,traffic accidents,and burns,and to the decreasing injury incidence among primary school students.Conclusion The overall situation of injuries among primary and middle school students in Changning District has improved significantly,but falls and traffic accidents are still important health threats.More attentions should be paid to certain groups,such as vocational and special education students.

关 键 词：学生 伤害 Joinpoint回归 趋势研究 

分 类 号：R181[医药卫生—流行病学]