2010—2020年上海市闵行区病毒性肝炎流行病学特征分析及预测  

Analysis and prediction of epidemiological characteristics of viral hepatitis in Minhang District of Shanghai in 2010-2020

作　　者：郭琪[1,2] 张悦 苏华林 杨瑛[1] GUO Qi;ZHANG Yue;SU Hualin;YANG Ying(Minhang District Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Shanghai 201101,China;Minhang Branch of Public Health School,Fudan Umiversity,Shanghai 201101,China)

机构地区：[1]上海市闵行区疾病预防控制中心,上海201101 [2]复旦大学公共卫生学院闵行分院

出　　处：《公共卫生与预防医学》2021年第5期88-92,共5页Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine

基　　金：闵行区公共卫生优秀青年人才培养项目(2020FM29)。

摘　　要：目的对2010—2020年上海市闵行区病毒性肝炎流行病学特征进行分析,对2021年发病数预测,为病毒性肝炎防控提供科学依据。方法采用描述性流行病学方法,对2010—2020年上海市闵行区病毒性肝炎疫情资料进行统计分析。采用Holt-Winters加法模型对2021年病毒性肝炎发病数进行预测。结果2010—2020年上海市闵行区累计报告病毒性肝炎病例10769例,年均报告发病率为38.81/10万。报告病例主要集中在人口密集、人流量较大的中心城区;78.23%的报告发病人群年龄集中在20~60岁;男女比例为1.92∶1;离退人员在各型别肝炎中所占的比例均最大。Holt-Winters加法模型预测2021年的发病例数为958例。结论需进一步加大对上海市闵行区流动人群的宣传与干预,特别是青壮年及离退人员,加强监测,降低感染率。Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of viral hepatitis in Minhang District,Shanghai from 2010 to 2020,to predict the number of cases in 2021,and to provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of viral hepatitis.Methods A descriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze the epidemic data of viral hepatitis in Minhang District of Shanghai from 2010 to 2020.The Holt-Winters additive model was used to predict the incidence of viral hepatitis in the future.Results A total of 10769 cases of viral hepatitis were reported in Minhang District,Shanghai from 2010 to 2020,with an average annual incidence rate of 38.81/100000.The reported cases were mainly concentrated in the central urban areas with dense population and large flow of people.The reported population was mainly concentrated in the 20-60 years old(78.23%).The ratio of male to female was 1.92∶1.Retirees accounted for the largest proportion of all types of hepatitis.The Holt-Winters additive model predicted 958 cases in 2021.Conclusion The overall prevention and control of viral hepatitis in Minhang District have achieved great success,but still face challenges.It is necessary to further strengthen the publicity and intervention to the floating population,especially the young,middle-aged and retired people,and to strengthen the surveillance to reduce the infection rate.

关 键 词：病毒性肝炎 流行特征 预测 

分 类 号：R183[医药卫生—流行病学]