闪电资料在快速更新同化系统中的应用研究  

Application of Lightning Data to High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Assimilation System

作　　者：何邓新 赖安伟[1,2] 康兆萍 孙玉婷 张文 李兰 孙晨[2] HE Dengxin;LAI Anwei;KANG Zhaoping;SUN Yuting;ZHANG Wen;LI Lan;SUN Chen(Hubei Key Laboratory for Heavy Rain Monitoring and Warning Research,Institute of Heavy Rain,CMA,Wuhan 430205;Wuhan Regional Climate Centre,Wuhan 430074)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所暴雨监测预警湖北省重点实验室,武汉430205 [2]武汉区域气候中心,武汉430074

出　　处：《气象》2021年第8期995-1008,共14页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1508002和2016YFE0109400)共同资助。

摘　　要：为了更好地应用闪电观测资料,在华中区域快速更新循环同化系统中引入适用于本地的闪电定位资料与代理回波特征的转换关系,并开展了相应的同化应用研究。针对2015年6月1日发生在湖北监利的一次强降水过程,开展了利用新、旧闪电-代理回波的对比同化试验,重点分析了引入新的闪电-代理回波转换关系对模式计算的雷达反射率、云微物理变量和降水预报的影响,并与直接同化雷达反射率进行对比。数值试验结果表明:新的闪电-代理回波关系较好地捕捉到强降水信号,通过调整初始时刻云水、雨水、云冰、云雪、霰等微物理量,尤其是提高了初始时刻雨水、云水的含量,达到调整降水预报的目的;对比降水结果可以得到在使用新的闪电-雷达回波关系后,能够有效降低漏报率,并且模式在短时间尺度可以响应出与实况更为接近的降水预报,提高短时临近预报准确率,取得了与直接同化雷达反射率相似的结果。For a further study on the usage of active divectory topology diagrammer(ADTD)lightning data in rapid refresh assimilation system,this paper introduces a new relationship between lightning activity and radar echo characteristics in Central China to calculate lightning-proxy reflectivity and conducts three sets of numerical experiments to analyze a severe weather process that occurred in Jianli,Hubei Province on 1 June 2015.The influence of lightning data on radar reflectivity,cloud microphysical variables and precipitation forecast calculated by rapid refresh assimilation system is mainly analyzed and compared with the direct assimilation of radar reflectivity.Results are as follows.The ADTD lightning data can capture the heavy precipitation signal well.The assimilation of lightning-proxy reflectivity of new relationship can improve the precipitation forecast skill by adjusting the cloud microphysical variables.By comparing the results of precipitation,we find that after adding lightning-proxy reflectivity obtained by the new relationship,the missing report rate can be effectively reduced,and the model can respond to the precipitation forecast that is more closely to the observation in a short-time scale.Moreover,it can improve the accuracy of short-term prediction and achieve similar results to the direct assimilation of radar reflectivity.

关 键 词：闪电代理回波 快速更新循环同化 潜热加热纳近 

分 类 号：P456[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P427