东道国金融发展、经济政策不确定性与中国对外直接投资的空间溢出效应  

Financial Development of Host Country,Economic Policy Uncertainties and Spatial Spillover Effects of China’s OFDI

作　　者：王雪[1] 马野驰[1] WANG Xue;MA Ye-chi(School of Economics and Management,Northeast Normal University,Changchun 130117,China)

机构地区：[1]东北师范大学经济与管理学院,长春130117

出　　处：《云南财经大学学报》2021年第8期1-15,共15页Journal of Yunnan University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“新丝绸之路经济带建设与人民币储备货币地位提升机制研究”(15CGJ021);东北师范大学校内青年基金项目“中国标准国际地位提升问题研究”(19QT008);吉林省人民政府第四次全国经济普查课题“吉林省小微企业发展状况研究”(017)。

摘　　要：基于2003—2018年中国对外直接投资(OFDI)存量数据与全球159个国家及地区的金融发展数据,通过构建动态的时空权重矩阵并设定SAR空间计量模型等方法,实证检验了东道国金融发展水平对中国对外直接投资的空间溢出效应及其作用机制。并以此为基础,考察金融发展与全球经济政策不确定性对中国对外直接投资的影响。研究发现:无论是非空间模型回归还是空间模型回归,东道国金融发展均能显著地促进中国对东道国的对外直接投资,且东道国金融发展能够促进邻近地区中国的直接投资水平,东道国金融机构的发展存在显著的正向空间溢出效应,金融市场的发展存在显著的负向空间溢出效应,并且空间溢出效应都要显著大于直接效应。全球经济政策不确定性在调节金融发展与中国OFDI中具有显著意义,全球经济政策不确定性越强,对东道国内和邻近国家间的空间溢出效应的正向影响越强,越能吸引中国OFDI。Based on the data of China’s OFDI stock and the financial development data from 159 countries and regions around the world from 2003 to 2018,the paper constructs a dynamic spatial-temporal weight matrix and sets up an SAR spatial measurement model to empirically test the spatial spillover effect and the mechanism of the financial development of host countries on China’s outward FDI.Further analysis is made on the impact of financial development and global economic policy uncertainties on China’s OFDI.Research shows that in both non-spatial and spatial model regressions,the financial development of host country can significantly promote China’s OFDI to the host country as well as the direct investment in the neighboring regions.The development of financial institutions in host countries has significant positive spatial spillover effect,while the development of financial market has a significant negative spatial spillover effect.Both the spatial spillover effects are significantly larger than direct effects.Global economic policy uncertainty is significant in regulating financial development and China’s OFDI.Higher uncertainty has stronger positive impact on the spatial spillover effect of the host country and the surrounding countries,which will attract more OFDI from China.

关 键 词：金融发展 经济政策不确定性 对外直接投资 空间溢出效应 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]