我国生猪行业的动态变化及2021年展望分析  

Dynamic Changing Characteristics of China’s Pig Industry and Outlook in 2021

作　　者：陈来华 李娟[1] 王亚辉[1] CHEN Lai-hua;LI Juan;WANGYa-hui(Agricultural information Institute,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业信息研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《中国食物与营养》2021年第8期5-9,共5页Food and Nutrition in China

基　　金：中国农业科学院农业信息研究所2020年度科技创新工程重点任务(项目编号:CAAS-ASTIP-2020-AII)。

摘　　要：回顾分析了近年来我国能繁母猪存栏量、生猪出栏量、二元母猪价格、猪肉产量、生猪养殖规模化程度的年度变化及大型养殖企业投资动向,并研判了后期生猪产业的发展趋势。结果表明:非洲猪瘟不稳定性、环保趋向紧迫、生产成本上升是当前发展生猪生产面临的新变化;能繁母猪产能环比持续增长,奠定了2021年生猪供应保障的基础,预计生猪出栏量有10%以上的增长;2021年国内生猪养殖的规模化程度将超过60%;大型生猪养殖集团的生产规模越来越大,产业话语权越来越强;规模以上定点屠宰企业生猪屠宰量占比将超过35%;国内猪肉产量占肉类产量的比重不断下降;生猪产业结构正由纺锤状向哑铃型过渡发展。基于以上结论,提出坚固产业发展政策、多元化手段保障供应、加强消费者宣传、提高猪肉深加工比例、促进产业升级等建议。This paper reviewed year-to-year variations of the quantity of reproductive sows,the output of live pigs,the price of binary hybrid sows,pork production and the level of scale in China during the past 20 years and development trend of large enterprises in recent years and investigated the future trends for the pig industry.The results showed that instability of African swine fever,strengthen of environment constraints and rise of production cost constituted new challenges to the current pig industry.Continuously significant increase of breeding sows laid the solid foundation of the country’s supply of live pigs,and it was estimated the output of live pigs may grow by more than 10%in 2021.The proportion of large-scale raising would exceed 60%in 2021.Large enterprises were possessing bigger production scale and stronger market discourse power.The amount of pigs slaughted from live pig slaughtering enterprises above designated scales would occupy more than 35 percents share of the whole country.The proportion of pork in total meat production was declining and pig industrial construction gradually transformed from spindle-like to dumbbell-shaped.Based on the above conclusions,the paper proposed some suggestions including consolidating industry development policy,utilizing various method to safeguard markets supplied,reinforcing the consumer education,developing the deep processing of pork,and promoting industry upgrading.

关 键 词：生猪产业 变化 规模化 非洲猪瘟 展望 

分 类 号：F326.3[经济管理—产业经济]