借贷约束、财政政策与经济波动  

Loan Constraint,Fiscal Policy and Economic Fluctuation

作　　者：潘超 程均丽[1] PAN Chao;CHENG Junli(Institute of Chinese Financial Studies,Southwestern University of Finance and Economics,Chengdu 611130,China)

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学中国金融研究中心,四川成都611130

出　　处：《财经论丛》2021年第9期15-27,共13页Collected Essays on Finance and Economics

摘　　要：本文基于1981~2018年宏观经济数据,构建了一个包括家庭借贷约束与政府支出冲击的真实商业周期模型。在该模型中,本文将政府支出作为外生随机冲击变量,对改革开放后的中国经济特征进行了实证检验,以考察我国财政支出的效应、家庭借贷约束的敏感性以及宏观经济波动的周期特征。研究发现:第一,调整财政支出冲击参数的结果显示,我国财政支出对私人投资和消费具有一定的挤出效应,但产出效应强于挤出效应;第二,调整借贷约束参数的结果显示,家庭部门受到的借贷约束越强,财政支出冲击对有效消费和债务水平的正向影响会越弱,即越倾向于降低家庭杠杆率。因此,本文认为现阶段政府财政支出应加强公共基础设施建设,以减少对私人投资和消费的挤出;政府应给予家庭和企业部门相对较强的借贷约束,同时配合以稳健的货币政策和积极的财政政策,避免触发“债务-通缩”风险而陷入蓬齐博弈。In recent years,the decrease of the household saving rate and the continuous prosperity of the real estate industry have promoted the increase of the household leverage ratio in China.As China's household sector leverage rate is significantly higher than those of most emerging economies,the increase of the pressure on household debt has more obvious inhibition on the consumption,especially when China's total retail sales of social consumer goods in 2018 grew at the lowest rate since the year 2015.The role of consumption in driving the economy and the role of fiscal policy in stimulating investment are gradually weakening.The crowding-out effect of fiscal policy,or constraints on borrowing of the household sector has depressed consumption.How to effectively control the rapid rise of the leverage ratio of the household sector and how to promote consumption to stabilize economic growth have become a hot issue of domestic concern.In this regard,our government departments have adopted a series of financial policies and achieved positive results.There are two main effects of fiscal policy.One is the crowding out effect.As a result,the actual investment of the household sector decreases which squeezes out part of the investment and consumption of the household sector,leading to the increase of capital accumulation and savings,and the decrease of output level.Meanwhile,the other one is the output effect.For example,issuing more national debt,structural tax reduction and raising the tax starting point can stimulate enterprise output more directly and effectively than the transmission mechanism of monetary policy,and the mechanism of automatic stabilizer can smooth out the fluctuations of the economic cycle in a shorter period of time.Based on macroeconomic data from 1981 to 2018,this paper constructs a real business cycle model that includes household borrowing constraints and government spending shocks.Taking government expenditure as an exogenous random impact variable,this paper conducts an empirical test on the econom

关 键 词：借贷约束 财政支出冲击 经济波动 挤出效应 

分 类 号：F812.4[经济管理—财政学]