世界田径运动竞技实力动态演变及驱动因素研究  

Dynamic Evolution and Driving Factors ofWorld Track and Field Athletic Strength

作　　者：魏鑫 钟亚平 邹克宁[1] WEI Xin;ZHONG Yaping;ZOU Kening(Wuhan Sports University,Wuhan 430070,China;Hubei University of Technology,Wuhan 430068,China.)

机构地区：[1]武汉体育学院,湖北武汉430070 [2]湖北工业大学,湖北武汉430068

出　　处：《中国体育科技》2021年第8期13-21,共9页China Sport Science and Technology

基　　金：国家体育总局东京奥运备战科技助力计划(2019TJ02);湖北省中央引导地方科技发展专项(2019ZYYD054)。

摘　　要：提高田径运动竞技实力水平对于我国竞技体育的发展和推进体育强国建设具有重要战略意义。通过对1993—2017年共13届田径世锦赛国际田径联合会所有成员的参赛成绩和相关数据统计分析,并运用Tobit回归模型对国际田径格局变化的驱动因素进行深入探析,结果表明,近30年世界田径运动竞技实力中心已由欧洲转向北美,非洲的增长势头有所减弱,逐渐形成了北美及加勒比地区雄踞称霸的局面。一个国家田径实力变化的微观影响因素主要来自“中”“强”实力项目的表现,而“弱势”项目或“超强”项目的实力变化很难对整体实力变化趋势产生重大影响。从宏观影响因素来看,则主要取决于国家的整体经济实力、人口数量,而不同培养制度对田径实力的作用差异随着时间的推移愈益趋同,呈现同一化发展趋势。It is of great strategic significance for the development of athletic sports and the con‐struction of leading sports nation to improve the track and field athletic strength in China. After a statistical analysis of the participation results and relevant data of all International Association of Athletics Federations (IAAF) members in 13 track and field world championships from 1993 to 2017, this research explored the driving factors of the changes of world track and field athlet‐ic strength by using the Tobit regression model. The result showed that in the past 30 years, the center of world track and field athletic strength had shifted from Europe to North America, the growth momentum of Africa had weakened, and a situation of dominance in North America and the Caribbean had gradually formed. The micro-influencing factors of a national track and field athletic strength change mainly come from the performance of the “medium” and “strong” strength level athletics, and the strength changes of “weak” or “super strong” athletics are un‐likely to have a major impact on the overall trend of track and field athletic strength. The macro influencing factors that reflect the changes in national athletics strength are mainly determined by the economic strength, population size. The difference in the effects of different training sys‐tems on track and field athletic strength has become more and more consistent over time, show‐ing the trend of the uniform development.

关 键 词：世界田径运动 竞技实力 演变 影响因素 

分 类 号：G82[文化科学—体育训练]