出口扩张对儿童发病率的影响——来自中国的证据  

Export Expansion Affects Children Morbidity:Evidence from China

作　　者：刘铠豪 佟家栋[3] 刘润娟[4] Liu Kaihao;Tong Jiadong;Liu Runjuan(Center for Public Economy and Policy Research,Shandong University,Jinan 250100,China;School of Economics,Shandong University,Jinan 250100,China;School of Economics,Nankai University,Tianjin 300071,China;Alberta School of Business,University of Alberta,Edmonton T6G 2R6,Canada)

机构地区：[1]山东大学公共经济与公共政策研究中心,250100 [2]山东大学经济学院,250100 [3]南开大学经济学院,300071 [4]阿尔伯塔大学商学院,T6G 2R6

出　　处：《南开经济研究》2021年第3期86-112,共27页Nankai Economic Studies

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“出口扩张与健康:理论分析与中国经验”(71903111);中国博士后科学基金第13批特别资助(站中)项目“国际贸易与家庭福利:理论与中国经验”(2020T130379);中国博士后科学基金第65批面上资助项目“税收负担与企业出口表现:理论与中国经验”(2019M652414);山东省社会科学规划研究项目“环境规制政策能否助力“健康中国·健康山东”?——来自“两控区”政策的证据”(19CQXJ16);山东省重点研发计划(软科学项目)重点项目“中美贸易摩擦对山东对外科技交流与合作的影响及对策分析”(2019RZE27024);山东大学基本科研业务费专项资金项目“出口扩张的隐形成本--基于健康的视角”(2018GN049);山东大学经济学院“学术繁荣计划”项目“出口扩张的劳动力市场效应”的资助。

摘　　要：在全球经济复苏乏力的背景下,“逆全球化”浪潮正以不可思议的速度席卷全球,并顺势引导着我们重新审视“全球化”的益处及其隐形成本。本文以中国改革开放以来迅猛的出口扩张为背景,首次系统地探讨了出口扩张的儿童健康成本。本文基于中国健康与营养调查等数据库,采用能够较好地避免内生性问题的Bartik方法构建了地区出口冲击和出口引致的污染冲击,并利用外部关税变化构建了工具变量。研究发现:出口冲击降低了儿童生病的可能性,而出口引致的空气污染冲击增加了儿童生病的可能性。具体而言:一个标准差的出口冲击降低儿童生病的可能性为1.05%;在出口引致的空气污染冲击中,一个标准差的出口引致的二氧化硫污染冲击增加儿童生病的可能性为2.07%,一个标准差的出口引致的氮氧化物污染冲击增加儿童生病的可能性为2.40%,一个标准差的出口引致的粉尘污染冲击增加儿童生病的可能性为2.29%。影响机制检验结果表明,出口扩张主要通过父母工资收入、营养摄入、公共服务的供给水平、留守儿童和环境质量五个路径影响儿童健康。异质性检验结果显示,出口冲击及其引致的空气污染冲击对儿童发病率的影响作用在不同疾病种类、不同年龄阶段之间有所差异,但在性别、城乡之间不存在明显差异。最后,对贸易福利进行了重新估算后发现,出口扩张总体上增加儿童生病的可能性为2.82%,其医疗成本腐蚀了家庭工资福利的6.53%。In the context of weak global economic recovery,the wave of"antiglobalization"is sweeping the globe with preternatural speed,and guides us towards reviewing the benefits and the potential"hidden"costs of globalization.Based on the fact that China experienced phenomenal export expansion since the reform and opening-up policy,this paper made the first attempt to systematically explore the children health cost of export expansion.Using the dataset of China Health and Nutrition Survey,etc,this paper constructs the local export shock and export-induced pollution shock employing the novel Bartik approach,in order to better deal with the potential endogeneity of export expansion,and then constructs instruments based on the external changes of tariffs.Our main finding is that export shock reduces the possibility of children falling ill while export-induced air pollution shocks increase the possibility of children falling ill.Quantitatively,a one standard deviation increase in export shock could reduce the possibility of children falling ill by 1.05 percent.As for the export-induced air pollution shocks,a one standard deviation increase in export-induced air pollution shock in sulfur dioxide increases the possibility of children falling ill by 2.07 percent,and a one standard deviation increase in export-induced air pollution shock in Nitrogen oxides increases the possibility of children falling ill by 2.40 percent,and a one standard deviation increase in export-induced air pollution shock in industrial dust increases the possibility of children falling ill by 2.29 percent.The mechanism test shows that there are five channels through which export expansion affects children morbidity,i.e.,parents'wages,nutrition intake,the provision of public services,left-behind children and environmental quality.Moreover,the heterogeneity test indicates that the impacts of export shock and export-induced air pollution shocks are heterogeneous across types of diseases and different periods of age,while show no difference in gender and urba

关 键 词：出口冲击 出口引致的污染冲击 儿童生病可能性 贸易福利 

分 类 号：F752.62[经济管理—国际贸易] R72[经济管理—产业经济]