偏向性投资、总需求类型与中国产能利用率  

Biased Investment,Aggregate Demands Types,and China's Capacity Utilization

作　　者：张四灿 张云[2] 李宝伟[2] Zhang Sican;Zhang Yun;Li Baowei(School of Economics,Tianjin Normal University,Tianjin 300387,China;School of Economics,Nankai University,Tianjin 300071,China)

机构地区：[1]天津师范大学经济学院,300387 [2]南开大学经济学院,300071

出　　处：《南开经济研究》2021年第3期223-238,共16页Nankai Economic Studies

基　　金：天津市2018年度哲学社会科学规划项目“产业融合视角下天津实现经济稳增长研究”(TJYJQN18-006)的资助。

摘　　要：本文将偏向性补贴和金融摩擦因素嵌入到一个包含消费品和投资品生产的两部门真实经济周期模型中,并以此考察短期内通过扩大总需求拉动经济增长而采取的两种不同方式(扩大消费或扩大投资)对宏观经济的差异化影响,进而分析了偏向性投资和金融摩擦对宏观经济周期波动产生的潜在影响。其结果表明:(1)两种类型的总需求冲击对宏观经济的影响机制存在一定差异,主要体现在正向消费型需求冲击能够通过部门产品需求渠道而显著提高投资品行业产能利用率,从而有助于化解产能过剩。(2)正向消费型需求冲击对经济增长和化解产能过剩的促进作用因偏向性投资而弱化,同时正向投资型需求冲击对经济增长和化解产能过剩的促进作用则显著增强。(3)相对于消费品部门而言,金融摩擦对投资品部门的影响更为显著,这是由于部门投资对冲击的差异化响应所导致。因此,要实现经济稳增长,政府需要在稳定投资总规模的基础上优化投资的行业间分布,实现行业均衡发展,注重激活消费品行业的经济活力以有效化解产能过剩。同时,政府需要密切关注投资品行业金融摩擦。This paper incorporates the biased subsidy and financial frictions factors into the two-sector Real Bussiness Cycle model including consumption and investment goods production,in order to study the differences between the macro-economics effects of consumption expenditure and investment expenditure,which are the important components of aggregate demands to promote economic growth,and understand the biased investment and financial frictions in shaping business-cycle dynamics.It has been found that:(1)The two types of aggregate expenditures have different mechanisms on macro-economy,mainly reflected in the fact that the positive consumption expenditures shocks will boost higher output in the consumption sector,which creates demand for capital goods produced by the investment sector,and then stimulates the capacity utilization of investment sector.(2)The promoting effect on economic growth and capacity utilization of the consumption expenditures shocks will be weaken by the biased investment,while the investment expenditures shocks will be enhanced by the biased investment.(3)Compared with the consumption sector,the financial frictions have greater effect on the investment sector,since the shocks have divergent effects on sector investment.Therefore,to keep economic growth steady,the government should keep investment stable and optimize the investment structure across sectors to achieve balanced development of different industries.The government should activate the consumption sector to resolve the overcapacity problem.Besides,the government should focus more on financial frictions in the investment sector.

关 键 词：偏向性投资 总需求类型 产能利用率 投资品相对价格 部门需求关联 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济] F832