突发事故条件下道路交通流早发性失效机理研究  

Study on Mechanism of Road Traffic Flow Early-onset Breakdown under Sudden Accident

作　　者：张锐 帅斌[1,2,3] 黄文成[1,2,3] 于耀程[1] 许旻昊 ZHANG Rui;SHUAI Bin;HUANG Wen-cheng;YU Yao-cheng;XU Min-hao(School of Transportation and Logistics,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu Sichuan 611756,China;National United Engineering Laboratory of Integrated and Intelligent Transportation,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu Sichuan 611756,China;National Engineering Laboratory of Integrated Transportation Big Data Application Technology,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu Sichuan 611756,China)

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学交通运输与物流学院,四川成都611756 [2]西南交通大学综合交通运输智能化国家地方联合工程实验室,四川成都611756 [3]西南交通大学综合交通大数据应用技术国家工程实验室,四川成都611756

出　　处：《公路交通科技》2021年第8期140-148,共9页Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(72001179);中央高校基本科研经费国家项目(2682021CX052);四川省科技厅国际科技创新合作项目(2021YFH0106)。

摘　　要：为了探究突发事故条件下道路交通流早发性失效机理,采用尖点突变模型建立了交通流早发性失效分析模型。首先,将尖点突变模型变量与交通流参数一一对应,建立了交通流尖点突变模型与实际道路交通运行状态的映射联系,并针对系统状态控制点在平衡曲面上的运动路径与交通流状态演变过程进行了对应分析。随后,引入分叉系数、包围系数及失效阈值边界3个参数定量描述了分叉集,旨在全面、细致地刻画分叉集的特征,揭示分叉集特征对系统状态控制点运动路径的实际影响。基于实测数据,建立了同一路段上有、无事故2种场景下的交通流尖点突变模型,通过最小二乘法拟合得到模型相关参数,并以此为基础推导计算得到2种场景下分叉集的特征参数。采用定量与定性分析相结合的方式对2种场景下交通流系统的演变进行了对比分析,进而揭示了突发事故条件下交通流早发性失效机理,并提出了相应的早发性失效预测方法。最后,结合2种场景下短时交通流参数时序变化路径进行了验证性分析,证明了所采用方法的可行性及合理性。In order to investigate the mechanism of early-onset breakdown of road traffic flow under sudden accident conditions,a traffic flow early-onset breakdown analysis model is established by using the cusp catastrophe model.First,the variables of the cusp catastrophe model are corresponded to the traffic flow parameters one by one,the mapping link between the traffic flow cusp catastrophe model and the actual road traffic operation state is established,and the correspondence analysis on the motion paths of the system state control points on the equilibrium surface and the traffic flow state evolution process is carried out.Subsequently,bifurcation coefficient,enclosure coefficient and breakdown threshold boundary are introduced to quantitatively describe the bifurcation set,aiming to comprehensively and meticulously portray the characteristics of bifurcation set and to reveal the actual influence of bifurcation set characteristics on the motion path of system state control points.Based on the measured data,a cusp catastrophe model of traffic flow on the same road section with/without accident is established,the relevant parameters of the model are obtained by least squares fitting,and the characteristic parameters of the bifurcation set under the 2 scenarios are derived and calculated on this basis.The evolutions of the traffic flow system under 2 scenarios are compared and analyzed by using quantitative and qualitative analysis,the mechanism of early-onset breakdown of traffic flow under sudden accident conditions is revealed,and a corresponding prediction method is proposed.Finally,the verification analysis is conducted based on the short-time temporal traffic flow parameter change paths under 2 scenarios,which proved the feasibility and reasonableness of the adopted method.

关 键 词：智能交通 交通流早发性失效 尖点突变模型 分叉系数 包围系数 失效阈值边界 

分 类 号：U491.112[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]