基于AHP的阿拉尔市水资源系统评价研究  

Study on water resources system evaluation of Alaer City based on AHP

作　　者：刘熙娟[1] 于德珠 刘云[1] LIU Xi-juan;YU De-zhu;LIU Yun(College of Information Engineering,Tarim University,Alar 843300,China)

机构地区：[1]塔里木大学信息工程学院,新疆阿拉尔843300

出　　处：《地下水》2021年第4期185-188,245,共5页Ground water

基　　金：塔里木大学校长基金(TDZKQN201823);大学生创新创业项目(2020101)。

摘　　要：新疆阿拉尔市地处塔克拉玛干沙漠边缘,因其特殊的地理位置和生态环境,近年来水资源供需矛盾日益突出。为了对水资源系统进行全面有效地评价,从生态、社会、经济效益等角度构建了水资源评价指标体系,并采用基于层次分析方法的模糊综合评价法对阿拉尔市水资源系统进行评价:根据建立的判断矩阵,采用层次分析法(AHP)计算影响水资源的各指标权重,并结合模糊综合评价法(FCE)对未来10年阿拉尔市水资源变化情况进行分析预测。结果表明,随着当地社会经济的发展和区域人口的增加,阿拉尔市将于2020年面临水危机现象。所以在有限的水资源储备下,需要更科学合理地利用现有资源,使其得到更理想的优化配置。Xinjiang Alar City is located in the edge of the Taklimakan Desert,because of its special geographical position and ecological environment,in recent years,the contradiction between the supply and demand of water resources has become increasingly prominent The water resources evaluation index system is constructed from the Angle of economic benefit,and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on the analytic hierarchy process is used to evaluate the water resources system of Alar City.According to the established judgment matrix,the analytic hierarchy process(AHP) is used to calculate the weight of each index affecting water resources,and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method(FCE) is combined with the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.The change of water resources in Alaer City in the next 10 years is analyzed and predicted.The results show that,with the development of local society and economy and the increase of regional population,Alar City will face the phenomenon of water crisis in 2020.Therefore,under the limited water resources reserve,it is necessary to make more scientific and reasonable use of the existing resources,so as to make them more ideal and optimal allocation.

关 键 词：层次分析法 模糊综合评价 评价指标体系 权重 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]