基于多元线性回归的黄金投资风险预测与控制  

Risk Prediction and Control of Gold Investment Based on Multiple Linear Regression

作　　者：孟丽丽[1] 张博涵 Meng Lili;Zhang Bohan(School of Science,Tianjin University of Commerce,Tianjin 300134,China)

机构地区：[1]天津商业大学理学院,天津300134

出　　处：《绿色科技》2021年第16期263-265,269,共4页Journal of Green Science and Technology

摘　　要：指出了在经济全球化的时代,黄金投资已成为个人或家庭理财投资和资产保值升值的重要内容。黄金是一种金融资产,在对抗通货膨胀有着很大的作用,因此在价值稳定方面具有其他投资产品无法达到的高度。首先分析了影响黄金投资的因素,从中选取美元指数、美国PMI、地缘政治指数这3个主要影响因素进行了多元线性回归分析,得到预测黄金投资收益率的线性回归方程,并对方程的适用范围做出解释.而后依靠得出的回归方程并综合其它未进行回归分析的因素,对黄金投资可预知的风险进行了量化评估并加以控制,同时还介绍了黄金投资的基本策略,使黄金投资风险最小化。With the economic globalization,gold investment has become an important part of personal or family wealth management investment and asset preservation and appreciation.Gold is a financial asset that plays a large role in combating inflation,so it has a level of stability that no other investment product can match.Firstly,this paper analyzes the factors affecting gold investment,and selects three major influencing factors of US dollar index,US PMI and geopolitical index to build multiple linear regression analysis.The linear regression equation is obtained to predict the return rate of gold investment and the applicable scope of the equation is explained.Finally,based on the regression equation and other factors not analyzed by regression analysis,the predictable risk of gold investment is quantitatively evaluated and controlled.At the same time,the basic strategy of gold investment is also introduced to minimize the risk of gold investment.

关 键 词：黄金投资 风险 预测 控制 

分 类 号：O212.4[理学—概率论与数理统计]