天津地区用电量与气温的非线性响应关系研究  

Study on the nonlinear response relationship between electricity consumption and air temperature in Tianjin area

作　　者：兰辉 于佳卉 曹经福 刘玉坤[3] 孙玫玲 黄鹤[4] LAN Hui;YU Jia-hui;CAO Jing-fu;LIU Yu-kun;SUN Mei-ling;HUANG He(Tianjin Meteorological Service Center,Tianjin 300074,China;Tianjin Institute of Meteorological Science,Tianjin 300074,China;State Grid Tianjin Electric Power Company,Tianjin 300010,China;Tianjin Climate Center,Tianjin 300074,China)

机构地区：[1]天津市气象服务中心,天津300074 [2]天津市气象科学研究所,天津300074 [3]国网天津市电力公司,天津300010 [4]天津市气候中心,天津300074

出　　处：《气象与环境学报》2021年第4期139-144,共6页Journal of Meteorology and Environment

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2018YFA06063002);天津市气象局科研项目(202135dgxm13)共同资助。

摘　　要：利用门限回归模型和非线性滑动回归模型,分析天津市2014—2019年日用电量和气温之间的非线性关系,并计算得到不同响应关系下的阈值气温。结果表明:天津地区的阈值气温在不同响应关系下存在明显差异,在“V”型非线性响应关系下,阈值气温为18.8℃,在“U”型响应关系下,线性不对称模型的舒适区范围为12.3—23.4℃,非线性模型的舒适区范围为13.7—21.7℃;对比不同模型的预测效果,认为“U”型优于“V”型模型,非线性模型优于线性模型。对阈值气温的影响要素分析表明,相对湿度对舒适区与冷却区的阈值气温影响较大,阈值气温在相对湿度为30%—50%时较相对湿度为50%—70%时偏大2.2℃,相比之下,相对湿度对舒适区与加热区的阈值气温影响不大;天津地区阈值气温会随时间发生明显变化,2002—2005年的舒适区范围较2014—2019年偏大1.4℃。在实践应用中,应根据模型的需求,并充分考虑相对湿度和时间变化的影响选择阈值气温,从而提升用电量预测的准确率。Using the threshold regression model and the nonlinear sliding regression model,the nonlinear relationship between the daily electricity consumption and temperature in Tianjin from 2014 to 2019 was explored,and the threshold temperature under different response relationships was calculated.The results showed that the threshold temperature in Tianjin is significantly different under different response relationships.Under the"V"-shaped nonlinear response relationship,the threshold temperature is 18.8℃,while under the"U"-shaped response relationship,the comfort zone of the linear asymmetric model is 12.3-23.4℃,and the comfort zone range of the nonlinear model is 13.7-21.7℃.Comparing the prediction effects of different models,it is considered that the"U"model is better than the"V"model,and the nonlinear model is better than the linear model.The analysis on the influence factors of the threshold temperature showed that relative humidity has a greater impact on the threshold temperature of the comfort zone and the cooling zone.The threshold temperature is 2.2℃higher when the relative humidity is 30%-50%than when the relative humidity is 50%-70%.In contrast,relative humidity has little effect on the threshold temperature of the comfort zone and heating zone.The threshold temperature in Tianjin will change significantly over time,and the range of the comfort zone in 2002-2005 is 1.4℃larger than that in 2014-2019.In practical applications,the threshold temperature should be selected according to the needs of the model,and the influence of relative humidity and time changes should be fully considered,to improve the accuracy of electricity consumption prediction.

关 键 词：门限回归 非线性滑动回归 “U”型分段 “V”型分段 

分 类 号：P49[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]