参赛越多运动生涯越长?——基于世界优秀田径运动员参赛特征的实证研究  

The More Participation the Longer Sports Career?:Based on the Characteristics of the World Outstanding Track and Field Athletes

作　　者：魏鑫 钟亚平 邹克宁[1] WEI Xin;ZHONG Yaping;ZOU Kening(Sports Big-Data Research Center,Wuhan Sports University,Wuhan 430070,Hubei,China;School of Physical Education,Hubei University of Technology,Wuhan 430068,Hubei,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉体育学院体育大数据研究中心,湖北武汉430070 [2]湖北工业大学体育学院,湖北武汉430068

出　　处：《上海体育学院学报》2021年第9期86-98,共13页Journal of Shanghai University of Sport

基　　金：国家体育总局东京奥运备战科技助力计划项目(2019TJ02);湖北省楚天学者计划资助项目(2018)。

摘　　要：运动员的运动寿命偏短是长期以来制约我国田径运动发展的一个重要因素,而有关运动员竞技高峰期及之后阶段的参赛特点,特别是运动员参赛特征与其运动寿命关系的研究迄今未见明确结论。鉴于此,对1993—2004年共1351名世界优秀田径运动员在1993—2017年的参赛成绩及相关数据进行统计分析,采用Cox回归对影响运动员运动寿命的参赛因素进行研究。结果显示:在同一年跻身国际田坛先进行列的运动员中,年龄较小、成绩相对较差的运动员退役风险率较低,具有更长的运动寿命,且运动生涯中最优成绩水平高或最优成绩出现时间晚,对延长其运动寿命具有重要作用。同时,这些运动员竞技高峰积蓄期的参赛安排对其运动寿命的影响较有限,但竞技高峰爆发期及其持续期的参赛安排会对运动寿命产生重要影响。因此,不同类别项目田径运动员竞技高峰爆发期的参赛安排应有所区别:适当增加短跑类运动员该阶段的参赛频次有利于降低运动员的退役风险;中长类、超长类、跳跃类、投掷类运动员则应通过适当降低该阶段的参赛频次,以降低退役风险,延长运动寿命。The short career length of athletes has been an important factor restricting the development of track-andfield sports in China for a long time.Currently,there is no convincing conclusion yet as for the study on the characteristics of competition of athletes during their career summit and the following stages,especially its relationship with the career length.The competition performances and related data between 1993 and 2017 of 1351 outstanding track-and-field athletes who participated in international competitions from 1993 to 2004 are analyzed,with the Cox regression method used to find the competition participation factors.The result shows that:younger athletes with inferior performance tend to have a lower risk of retirement,also,a longer athletic career,a superior or later-come best-performance plays an important role in prolonging the career length,the participation program during the accumulative phase of competition peak has a limited effect on the career length,and the participation program during the explosive phase of competition peak and its maintaining phase affects it significantly.Therefore,the participation program during the explosive phase of competition peak should be designed differently:sprint athletes could increase their attendance frequency for competition thus to decrease the risk of retirement,and the same purpose could be achieved by reducing the frequency of participation for special athletes in middle-distance running,long-distance running,jumping and throwing.

关 键 词：田径运动员 运动寿命 生存分析 参赛频次 参赛成绩 

分 类 号：G808[文化科学—体育训练]